Namibia: What next after President Hage Geingob's death?

Namibia managed a peaceful power handover in the early hours of Sunday after the death of President Hage Geingob. The 82-year-old leader, in power since 2015, died after a brief battle with cancer.

His successor, interim President Nangolo Mbumba, took the helm. But he has no plans to run for the presidential election due in November this year. "I am not going to be around for the elections, so don't panic," Mbumba said at his swearing-in ceremony the day his predecessor died.

Mbumba's decision is rare among African leaders, who tend often to take any chance they have of clinging to power.

"Our nation remains calm and stable owing to the leadership of President Geingob, who was the chief architect of the constitution," Mbumba said as he paid tribute to his predecessor.

Mbumba was the 'ideal choice'

Mbumba's appointment as interim president didn't come as a surprise for political analyst Rakkel Andreas.

"For the sake of continuity, he was the ideal choice, considering that he carried on the institutional memory of the office of the president," Andreas told DW.

Mbumba had been Geingob's deputy since 2018, although the spotlight was usually on the charismatic late president.

When Geingob first became president in 2015, he had already been the country's longest-serving prime minister, with terms from 1990 to 2002 and then again for a shorter stint from 2012 to 2015.

But going by results at the ballot box, his popularity had declined. In the 2014 election, he won by a huge majority, taking 87% of the vote. Five years later, that percentage had fallen to 56%.

Geingob's first term coincided with a stagnant economy and high levels of unemployment and poverty, according to the World Bank.

His party also faced several corruption scandals during his time in office.

Chance as Namibia's first female president

Vice President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, a former deputy prime minister and the ruling South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO) party's presidential candidate, will assist Mbumba.

Should she be elected in November, the 71-year-old politician would become the country's first female president.

According to Andreas, having her as presidential candidate is a strategic move that ensures stability within the party, which currently finds itself without a leader.

It is expected that SWAPO will hold an extraordinary congress within 90 days to vote for a new person to take over the party leadership from the late President Geingob.

Toss between Mbumba and Nandi-Ndaitwah

While Nandi-Ndaitwah appears to be the most likely candidate for this role, Andreas predicts that Mbumba also has a chance of becoming the next SWAPO leader.

This, however, won't necessarily mean a change of direction in the party's politics before the upcoming elections later this year.

"I anticipate SWAPO to move in the direction of retaining Nandi-Ndaitwah as the party candidate," Andreas said, adding that such a move would build on the voters' perception that there is stability in the party.

She said it was highly unlikely for Mbumba to try to oust Nandi-Ndaitwah as the preferred candidate. "Any political ambitions that he [Mbumba] might have will have to be weighed against the future of the party in general."

A last-minute switch of candidates could be seen as untrustworthy by the electorate.

Showing strength and unity would also deal a blow to any hopes of opposition parties to benefit from Geingob's death.

"I don't see how the opposition can try and turn it into a tactical issue to exploit to their advantage," Andreas added.

SWAPO losing its appeal

Three decades after independence in 1990, the heroic narrative of SWAPO having liberated Namibia is losing its appeal among a generation born after the struggle. 

"When it comes to national assembly elections in November, SWAPO is closer to losing the absolute majority than ever before in the political history since independence," Henning Melber, a long-time observer of Namibian politics, told DW.

The party is largely still stuck in liberation ideology. The best example, he cites, is the vice president, Nandi-Ndaitwah. "She is conservative, homophobic and actually profoundly reactionary." This would mean less progress for civil society under her presidency.

On the contrary, Melber describes the late President Geingob as more progressive, maintaining close ties with the US.

He also pushed the political agenda towards green energy and a pioneering role in green industrialization on the African continent.

South Africa's ANC in worse danger

For Melber, it seems rather likely that SWAPO will remain the strongest party, possibly with a continued absolute majority. "The loss of legitimacy is less than that of the ANC in South Africa," he said.

In neighboring South Africa, analysts predict that the former liberation movement of Nelson Mandela will — for the first time — not reach the 50% hurdle at the upcoming elections in May.

SWAPO is, however, lucky that the opposition in Namibia is more divided and unable to form the same kind of lasting sustainable alliances or coalition agreements as in South Africa, Melber said. "They fight among themselves, and there are accusations of bribery and abuse of office," he said.

According to Melber, if the majority of votes is smaller, the interesting question will be to what extent SWAPO will be flexible and willing enough to seek closer alliances with some of the parties who compete with the former liberation movement.

Edited by: Chrispin Mwakideu