North Korean tactical nuclear exercises heighten tensions

The advanced new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) fired by North Korea last week has triggered expressions of concern in South Korea and across the region. Analysts have warned that Pyongyang now has the ability to fire missiles that can hit targets as far away as the United States, and with little or no warning.

The Hwasong-18 ICBM was fired from a mobile tractor-trailer unit that emerged from a road tunnel on the outskirts of Pyongyang shortly after 7 a.m. local time on Friday (2200 Thursday UTC/GMT). The missile followed a lofted trajectory that saw the first stage fall into the Sea of Japan, 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) off the coast of North Korea, followed by the second stage coming down 355 kilometers out to sea.  

The launch was quickly detected by the South Korean and Japanese military, with authorities in Japan issuing a warning of an incoming missile via radio, television and mobile phone across much of the north of the country. The alert was rescinded when it became apparent that the missile's trajectory would not cross Japanese territory. In the past, a number of North Korean missiles have traversed Japan before splashing down into the Pacific Ocean.  

The test was overseen by Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader, his wife and young daughter, with the dictator expressing his delight at the successful launch, claiming enemies are "imperiling the environment on the Korean Peninsula and harassing the Korean people's peaceful life and struggle for socialist construction."

'Strike horror' into enemies 

The North Korean state-run Korean Central News Agency quoted Kim as saying the new weapon would make the nation's rivals "experience a clearer security crisis and constantly strike extreme uneasiness and horror into them by taking fatal and offensive counteractions until they abandon their senseless thinking and reckless acts."

Global powers' intelligence has long been concerned about the North's development of solid-fuel ICBMs, which are superior to previous generations of liquid-fueled missiles, as they can be fueled during the manufacturing process. Because they do not need to be fueled immediately before launch, solid-fuel missiles can be fired with very little warning, are more mobile and, consequently, more difficult to locate and destroy.  

The response from South Korea, Japan and the United States has been rapid and firm.  

Later on Friday, the three nations agreed to step up missile defense and anti-submarine exercises in waters around the Korean Peninsula to counter the growing threat posed by Pyongyang. They also announced a resumption of trilateral maneuvers to carry out maritime interdiction patrols, designed to enforce United Nations sanctions on the North.

On Monday, South Korea and the US commenced regular joint air exercises, with 110 aircraft and 1,400 military personnel involved in 12 days of drills.  

The worsening regional tensions were demonstrated on Saturday when a South Korean Navy vessel fired 10 warning shots across the bow of a North Korean patrol boat that had crossed the disputed maritime border in the Yellow Sea, off the west coast of the peninsula. The North Korean ship had apparently been pursuing a Chinese fishing boat that had been operating illegally in the North's waters but then fled to the South.  

Speaking with South Korea's Yonhap news agency in Seoul, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said the North's recent statements on advances on its nuclear weapons capability were "deeply concerning."

'Utterly unacceptable violations' of UN resolutions

Colonna said France had consistently "condemned in the strongest terms the ballistic missile launches carried out by North Korea," describing them as "blatant and utterly unacceptable violations" of UN resolutions.  

She added that the North's continued development of ever-more capable nuclear weapons constituted "a serious threat to regional peace and stability, as well as international security."

Lim Eun-jung, an associate professor of international studies at Kongju National University, said, "People in the South have put up with provocations from the North for many, many years so that this is happening is not a surprise to us."

"But this time, it does feel different," she said. "The provocations have been accelerating, and there have been so many missile launches in the last year or so. And now we have a solid-fuel missile, and that is different."

"It tells us that they have made progress with the technology needed to launch these weapons and means they are much more unpredictable," Lim continued. "They want to break the shield that is our security alliance."

Some analysts have suggested that Pyongyang wants to decouple South Korea's security alliance with the US. One way of doing that would be for the North to field a large arsenal of liquid-fueled missiles that could be used in a sudden and massive attack on the South before the US could effectively respond, while simultaneously menacing US cities.

'We do not know' what North Korea wants

"Yes, I believe that more people in the South are becoming worried about the North’s military capabilities," said Lim. "Tensions are certainly rising — but I ask myself whether the North would really risk going to war?"

"Part of the problem is that we do not know what they want," she added. "Do they want war? Are they trying to force the US into discussions? Are they seeking concessions on the sanctions? It's impossible to read what they want, and in the meantime the tensions just keep rising."  

In an editorial, Seoul-based daily The Korea Times declared that, "Not a week passes without more news ramping up tensions on the Korean Peninsula" and suggested that the North is planning another ICBM launch and the regime's seventh underground nuclear test.  

Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, is equally concerned about the rising threats to peace in the region.  

"Pyongyang's provocations continue past its protest of US-South Korea defense exercises because Kim Jong Un hasn’t finished demonstrating his nuclear delivery capabilities yet," he said. "North Korea’s ICBM tests are thinly veiled threats that it could potentially destroy American cities. Its recent short-range missile firings attempt to increase the credibility, command and control of its self-proclaimed tactical nuclear weapons units aimed at South Korea and Japan."

Edited by: John Silk