Obama's quagmire

It's a classic case of 'told you so.' Two months before the US launched its invasion of Iraq in 2003, a classified intelligence report spearheaded by the CIA warned the White House and Congress that ousting Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein could bolster Islamic terrorism in Iraq and beyond. It stressed that there was a "significant chance that domestic groups (in Iraq) would engage in violent conflict with each other."

President George W. Bush obviously did not heed the warning, stating repeatedly that the world is better off without than with Saddam Hussein. Now 14 years, tens of thousands of war-related deaths later, and the looming takeover of the country by an Islamist terrorist group that even al Qaeda deems too radical, might even give the former president pause for thought.

War opponents drawn into war

But it's up to his successor Barack Obama, an ardent opponent of the Iraq war and his defense secretary Chuck Hagel, who as Senator was the strongest Republican critic of Bush and compared Iraq to Vietnam, to try to sort out the mess. That will be a herculean task.

To prevent a full-fledged takeover of the Iraq by ISIS, the ultra-radical Islamist group, Obama - who won the White House with the promise to end the Iraq war and fulfilled it when he brought all US combat troops home two years ago - will now have to get his hands dirty on the bloody ethnic and religious chaos that is present-day Iraq.

Drones and intelligence

While Obama has ruled out deploying American soldiers to Iraq, the US will have to engage militarily to fight back ISIS. As we have seen, Iraq's army alone - despite years of training by US and NATO experts and millions spent - is simply not up to the task. And since Iraq's military does not have a real air force, Washington is the only one who has the capabilities needed to at least halt the advance of the ISIS fighters.

To do that, the Obama administration must deploy drones and if necessary additional military aircraft to Iraq. Washington had earlier rebuffed similar requests by the Iraqi government. Now it's time for Obama to step up to the plate and do just that. What's more, the US should - and probably does already - give intelligence and logistical support for Iraq's military and help it organize a strategy to defeat ISIS.

Bleak prospects

Unfortunately, that is only a short-term solution. Deploying US military power to prevent ISIS from taking over Baghdad is like putting a band aid on a festering wound. It stops the bleeding, but it doesn't cure the underlying infection. To turn Iraq from being very close to a failed state with dysfunctional institutions into a functioning country requires nation-building - again.

And if the past is any indicator, chances are slim that the US and the West alone would be successful - and willing - to try this a second time. The best if only faint hope for Iraq probably lies in a national effort to remake the country backed by the region's major stakeholders and a US security guarantee. For Obama that's bad news. The Iraq chapter in America's history book has just been reopened.