Resetting relations

In what will be his first major speech on the Arab Spring wave of uprisings which have swept through North Africa and the Middle East since the turn of the year, Obama "will discuss, among several topics, the dramatic change in the Middle East and North Africa this year" as well as "the Middle East peace process and the need for that process to continue and succeed," according to White House Press Secretary Jay Carney.

Obama's speech on Thursday from the State Department comes at a time of great upheaval in the Middle East and growing pressure on his administration to reconnect with the Arab world after the killing of Osama bin Laden, the growing discontent over his perceived failure to act decisively in regard to the popular Arab uprisings, and the increasingly ominous state of affairs between Israel and the Palestinians.

New agenda

The US president has been accused of inconsistency in dealing with the Arab Spring uprisings which have forced the US to abandon former allies, such as ex-Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and rethink its allegiances within its Middle East policy.

Analysts are at a loss over what this agenda could be but most agree that that the US president needs to deliver a clear vision - one that has been lacking for some time.

"The problem is, from Cairo to today, that Obama says the right thing but the actions don't back up the words," Yossi Mekelberg, an international relations lecturer at Regents College London and Middle East expert at Chatham House, told Deutsche Welle.

"The US administration lacks consistency and Obama doesn't have a coherent vision; one minute he's vetoing a Security Council resolution on Israeli settlements, the next Ambassador Susan Rice is condemning Israel for building more. How can the countries in the Middle East know where they stand?"

For those hoping for a repeat of Obama's "A New Beginning" speech made in Cairo in 2009 which was widely welcomed by the Muslim world, the omissions which many criticized the president for in that particular speech are likely to be repeated in the 2011 version.

Low expectations

Back in 2009, while Obama promoted a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian problem, called on Israel to refrain from settlement building and urged Hamas to renounce violence, there were few absolutes in terms of how these targets would be met.

With US special envoy George Mitchell resigning from his post last week with negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians still in a state of stalemate since stalling over a year ago, Obama finds himself in an even more uncertain position than he did in 2009.

But the consensus is that there will be no fresh US proposals for getting Israel and the Palestinians back to the negotiation table in Thursday's speech.

"I expect Obama to call for a new approach from both Israel and the Palestinians to seize the opportunity for peace rather than being trapped in old fears and reflexes," Anthony Dworkin, a transatlantic relations expert with the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Deutsche Welle.

"This is a problem of leadership not will. Almost 70 percent of people on both sides want a two-state solution but the 10 percent with the power won't budge. We need someone to get things moving," Mekelberg said.

Arab Spring response

Analysts also wonder if Obama will go far enough when addressing the Arab Spring uprisings. So far the president has evaluated the revolutions in each country on their own specific terms, an approach which has drawn criticism from opponents who have accused him of an uneven policy regarding US support for the autocrats who have helped ensure an uneasy regional stability for decades.

Obama's treatment of Mubarak in particular has led other leaders, specifically those in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, to question Washington's commitment to support in the region.

Obama has also been criticized for his response to the calls from pro-democracy protestors across the Arab world for greater political freedoms with opponents questioning the insufficient support he has shown for movements calling for change, specifically those in Egypt and Syria.

Mekelberg points out that inconsistency is again dogging Obama, but concedes that the situation poses a number of problems.

"It is very complicated because there are other issues at stake rather than just across-the-board support of democracy; there are issues of security, for instance in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia where the US needs stability there as a counterweight to Iran."

"What is needed is a policy as close to consistent as possible; perhaps the case-by-case approach is the best because he will never be able to use the same policy in every country," Mekelberg added. "This will leave Obama open to more accusations of hypocrisy and double-standards but I don't see him having an alternative."

Dworkin believes that Obama will reaffirm the US message that it backs the aspirations of the people in the Middle East and that "it doesn't aim to promote or impose change from outside but that it believes in the right of the people of these countries to play a part in determining their own future. He is likely to be tougher on Syria than up to now."

Post-bin Laden policy

With reference to the people power that has driven change in the region, Obama is expected to harness the death of Osama bin Laden and the perceived waning of al Qaeda's power and its ideology to make a statement on the broader transformation taking place in the Arab world.

By using bin Laden's death as a way to articulate a unified theory about the popular uprisings from Tunisia to Bahrain, Obama could attempt to cultivate a link between protest movements that have common threads but also disparate features and which have prompted the US to respond in very different ways.

"Obama will seek to contrast the negativity of bin Laden's approach with the positive example of the non-violent demonstrations for democracy in Egypt, Tunisia and elsewhere," Dworkin said.

"The aim will be to capitalize on bin Laden's death to try to paint Islamist terrorism as a dead-end while an exciting new positive vision of the future is opening up on Arab streets. It will also be interesting to see if he uses bin Laden's death to try to further distance the US from the idea of a global campaign against terrorism. Personally, I hope he does."

At the end of the day, says Mekelberg, Obama will have to show that he means business and is ready to back up his statements with action.

"Either he does what he says or the US will continue to lose face and influence in the region."

Author: Nick Amies

Editor: Rob Mudge