A fraud-hit election

On two occasions, Afghans defied Taliban threats and risked their lives to cast their ballots. They showed their desire and determination to bring about the country's first ever democratic and peaceful transition of power. Now, a couple of weeks after the June 14 runoff vote, the Afghanistan's Election Commission has released the preliminary results of the presidential poll. And the winner is: former World Bank economist Ashraf Ghani.

The results showed that Ghani had about 4.5 million votes, or 56 percent - an unblemished result at first sight. However, allegations of massive fraud had led to the announcement being delayed on several occasions. Former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah, who won the first round of the poll, now came in second with 3.5 million votes, or 44 percent. This outcome raises questions.

Providing answers

One simple answer is that Afghan voters didn't cast their ballots in favor or against a specific party manifesto, but rather along ethnic lines. Ashraf Ghani is a Pashtun who represents the Afghanistan's ethnic majority, especially in the east and south of the country. Abdullah on the other hand, who has a Pashtun father and a Tajik mother, is viewed as a representative of the Tajik minority in the north.

Abdullah's relative success during the first round is possibly due to the fact that many other Pashtun candidates were running against Ghani in the first round of the vote. This changed, however, in the runoff vote when many of these candidates decided to support Ghani.

Another possible answer has been provided by Abdullah himself who believes the vote was massively rigged. The poll results were announced after the campaign teams held hours of negotiations with electoral officials behind closed doors. No one has denied that fraud was committed. But the question is whether it was so massive that it may have influenced the electoral outcome. Ghani, however, claims the electoral process has been clean.

This dispute over the credibility of the poll poses a potential danger, as there will never be a clear answer to the question of whether the vote was massively rigged. That is frustrating and sows the seeds for violence, fueling speculation about deceptive backroom deals. Those who reject Western democracy as the work of the devil, may capitalize on this result.

Reputation at stake

The US and EU and the UN deserve praise for offering their support as mediators. But there is a downside, as this can lead to the impression that "good governance" in Afghanistan isn't possible without foreign support. Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission has been criticized for not been able to manage the situation on its own. The Electoral Complaints Commission still has to stand the test and investigate the fraud allegations until the official result is released by the end of July. The commission's reputation is at stake.

But there is some good news: the West can rely on Ashraf Ghani as a partner as much as on Abdullah Abdullah. Their programs and objectives differentiate themselves only slightly. And both want to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement with the US, which guarantees that some US troops will remain in the country after the NATO drawdown by the end of this year, something outgoing president Hamid Karzai refused to do. At least on that, the West can expect a reliable partner.