The Cyprus Question

In the stand-off over Ankara's recognition of the Greek-Cypriot government in Nicosia, the EU has appealed to both sides to compromise. On Monday, Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn warned they may be facing what he called "the last window of opportunity for several years" to make progress on the Cyprus issue.

Cyprus has threatened to block further negotiations if Turkey refuses to open its ports to Cypriot ships as it does for traffic from other EU countries. For its part, Turkey is pushing for an end to the direct trade embargo on the Turkish part of Cyprus, a move which Cyprus opposes.

Ultimately, its attitude is leading to an ever-widening gulf between Brussels and the Ankara, and both parties will have to beware it doesn't become insurmountable by the end of the year.

If the accession talks with Turkey really do break down, it would mark a considerable defeat for European foreign policy. The EU's reputation in Turkey would be badly shaken for the foreseeable future, and the pressure on Ankara to introduce further democratic reforms would be instantly off -- and above all, the strategically sound goal of bringing Turkey closer into the European fold would be put on the back burner. Meanwhile, within the EU, the latent dispute between Turkey's supporters such as Britain and its critics such as France would inevitably rise to the surface and even boil over.

The unresolved Cyprus question, which could precipitate a premature end to Turkey's accession talks, needs to be solved within the next few weeks, before the Commission issues its next progress report on Turkey's candidacy in early November. But the failure of the talks in Luxembourg Monday to make any headway suggests there's more reason than ever to doubt that a solution is in reach.

Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül insisted that Ankara will only recognize Cyprus when the EU agrees to recognize the Turkish Cypriot northern Cyprus. But the EU pointed out that Turkey has already contractually agreed to opening itself up to Cypriot ships and airplanes, thereby indirectly recognizing the Greek Cypriot government which represents the divided island in the EU.

The Cypriot government is also digging its heels in by using its EU veto to block the opening of any new "chapter" or policy area in talks with Turkey. The EU inherited this problem when it admitted Cyprus in 2004 even though the Greek Cypriot government in Nicosia had rejected the UN's reunification plan in April that year.

Hopefully, Olli Rehn's plea that both sides start to compromise will have resulted in more flexibility by December. Finland, which currently holds the six-month EU presidency, has already fleshed out new ways to postpone resolution until the elections in Turkey next year.

But Turkey is going to have to accept that the only way forward is to recognize EU member Cyprus if it too wants to join the club.

There's no point in the EU harping on about the Armenian question and Turkey's outrage at French lawmakers' adoption of a bill which makes it a crime to deny the Armenian genocide -- the country's failure to come to terms with its past is no reason for the accession talks to break down. Nor is it helpful to say Turkey is being given the run-around by the EU, by constantly coming up with new entry conditions -- which is simply wrong. Admitting the Armenian genocide has never been a condition of Turkey's accession, but freedom of opinion and freedom of the press have. And solving the Cyprus question most certainly has.

Equally undeniable is the fact that these trying, long-winded negotiations are doing nothing to boost Turkey's standing in Brussels. It's in everyone's interests that Ankara and Nicosia jump over their shadows if the 32-year-old Cyprus conflict is ever going to end.