Hollande's disaster

Francois Hollande wanted to be a "normal" president. For many French people, Hollande was a welcome difference to his conservative predecessor: the hyperactive, polarizing Nicolas Sarkozy could sometimes appear rather vulgar, and with his glamorous wife, Carla Bruni, he often conducted himself like a character in a comic opera. Today, opinion polls reveal that a grand total of just 4 percent of French people want to see Hollande re-elected in the next presidential election in 2017. He has become the least popular head of state in the history of the Fifth Republic.

Unremitting decline

In Francois Hollande's case, "normal" came to mean, primarily, passivity and lack of leadership. Unfortunately, in its current state there is nothing France needs less than a head of state with these characteristics. The competitiveness of this once proud nation is dropping further and further, as is its global market share. Unemployment remains stuck at a very high level. Young people in particular feel they have no prospects. The budget deficit has been in excess of the European limit for years now: It is still growing, and according to the European Commission's latest prognoses it will be highest in the entire eurozone by 2016. The whole of Europe is waiting with bated breath to see whether the EU's commissioner for economic affairs, French politician Pierre Moscovici, will haul his own country over the coals.

Is Germany to blame?

It is humiliating for the French to witness the decline of their country, especially in comparison with their dynamic neighbor Germany. It injures their pride. Hollande is of course not entirely to blame. There are many deep-rooted reasons for France's current plight, including an extremely bloated apparatus of state, deindustrialization, and an excessive sense of entitlement on the part of French citizens. But at least Sarkozy tried to change some of France's fundamental weaknesses. Hollande, on the other hand, first ignored the problems, then laid the blame for them at the door of Europe's - and especially Germany's - austerity policies. He acted as if all that was needed was for Germany and others to put enough money into economic stimulus packages, without paying any attention to levels of debt, and everything would be just fine. This was a cheap way of distracting from his own failure.

Secret affair

Hollande has been up to his neck in trouble for a long time on the domestic front, but he presented himself as a strong man in terms of foreign policy. He ordered one military intervention in Mali, and approved another against President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, which didn't happen because he didn't have enough allies to support it. Nonetheless, this did show spirit. But then his image was wrecked by pictures from his private life. The paparazzi photos showing the head of state, unshaven, hidden beneath a motorcycle helmet, allegedly heading up to the apartment of his lover, Julie Gayet, went all around the world. The French may tolerate their president's love affairs, but when the head of state becomes a figure of ridicule the fun stops.

Gains for Le Pen

As if all that were not enough, the beleaguered president was then confronted with the Le Pen phenomenon. And at this point, the fun most definitely stops. Marine Le Pen, the leader of the right-wing extremist National Front, is profiting not only from the French malaise but also from Hollande's fall from grace. With her simple recipes of French sovereignty and isolation from globalization she is making life very difficult indeed for the Parisian elite. In their desperation Hollande and his people are now even trying to put pressure on Germany by warning that without state-subsidized growth programs, extremism will win. What an admission of failure!

No call for schadenfreude

This attempted blackmail may be infuriating, but there is indeed every reason to be concerned about France's political situation, not only at the economic level. Opinion polls show that Le Pen has a good chance of getting onto the final ballot in the next presidential election in 2017. Some even envisage her making it all the way to the Elysee Palace. That would be a disaster, both for France and for Europe. And this is why nobody should rub their hands with glee over France's decline, or its president's devastating mid-term review. Germany in particular would be well advised to offer support to its most important partner, to try to find common ground and facilitate compromise, even if at present the ideological differences between Berlin and Paris are often considerable. Hollande may have been a failure so far as president, but the Franco-German partnership cannot be allowed to suffer as a result.