No New Axis

Eager to prevent her three-way meeting Saturday with French President Jacques Chirac and Russian President Vladimir Putin appearing too exclusive, Merkel took deliberate steps to ensure US President George W. Bush and the Baltic States understood the summit "had not been her idea."

The move came amid growing fears of precisely this axis, which have been simmering in Eastern Europe and especially Poland for some time. But how justified are they?

International sensitivities

Angela Merkel is no longer the new kid on the block. She's learnt what it takes to make a good impression on the international stage, and she'll be demonstrating this skill once again when she gets together with Chirac and Putin in Paris this weekend.

But she hasn't made any bones about her reluctance to take part in the meeting -- not least because Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are manifestly opposed to the idea of a close political allegiance between Paris, Berlin and Moscow.

After being snubbed on several occasions by former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, whose jealous friendship with Putin left little room for anyone else, Poland and the Baltic States are concerned about being left out of any decision-making -- and Merkel is perfectly willing to allay their fears. With the meeting looming ahead, she sent over her foreign policy advisers to soothe any ruffled feathers and even touched base with the White House.

Merkel goes out on a limb

Her first priority, she has repeatedly stressed, is transparency. But do Poland and the Baltic States appreciate the effort she's making?

After all, if anyone is going to be batting for them at the Paris get-together, it will be her rather than Putin -- despite the fact that Poland, for one, takes every opportunity to make Germany look bad in what amounts to regular tests of their relationship. Warsaw recently considered withdrawing the rights of Poland's German minority, for example, then vocally denounced President Horst Köhler when he called for improved dialogue between Poland and Germany at a meeting of German expellees.

Moreover, Merkel has a lot to lose by testing Moscow's patience -- not just for historical reasons, but also political and economic ones. As its main energy supplier, Russia is an ally Germany cannot afford to anger. Now that its economy is booming, it's also an increasingly important market for European export -- not to mention the fact that Russia plays a crucial partner role in the international community's fraught negotiations with Iran.

Much to the chagrin of Poland, Europe needs Russia. For a whole range of historical reasons, the Polish government's mistrust of the German-Russian friendship -- which now seems to extend to France -- runs deep. But while it might be important to learn from history, history should not get in the way of future opportunities. And since the Cold War ended, Germany has shown Poland and the Baltic States that a friend in need is a friend indeed.

Miodrag Soric is DW-RADIO's editor-in-chief (jp)