After 10 days of scheduled maintenance, Russian gas deliveries via the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline resumed on Thursday, though not at full capacity. Still, it led to a sigh of relief in the European Union, and especially in Germany. The EU's largest economy had feared that Russia might use some pretext to completely shut down this critical Baltic Sea transport route for natural gas.
The episode makes clear that President Vladimir Putin does not want to cede control of his gas — a popular and still very potent weapon. If he had ordered Gazprom not to resume deliveries via Nord Stream 1, he would have effectively burned all bridges. By now, even the most naive Germans seem to have realized that Putin is the one making such geostrategic decisions in Russia, especially now during the war against Ukraine and the head-on confrontation with the West.
Had Russia not turned on the taps, the EU would have declared the highest alarm level and immediately put into effect its plans for a gas supply emergency. There would have been an embargo on Russian gas, only it would have been imposed not by the EU, but by Russia itself.
After that, it would have been difficult for Russia to resume deliveries again. That would have looked like a sign of weakness, a concession to the West, or even a de facto admission that without its European customers, Gazprom has nowhere to sell its vast quantities of West Siberian gas.
Instead, the Russian state-owned company will now continue to generate foreign currency for the country, which is important for Russia as a major player in the raw materials market, especially given that Russian coal will disappear completely from the European market in three weeks due to EU sanctions, and Russian oil largely by the end of the year.
But in the current situation, something else is obviously much more important to the Kremlin: By resuming Nord Stream 1 operations, Moscow retains the possibility to continue scaring the Europeans by threatening them with a complete gas freeze.
Gazprom could continue to blackmail Europeans
Last month, Gazprom blamed the absence of a Siemens gas turbine undergoing repairs in Canada for cutting gas flows to Germany via Nord Stream 1. That happened just before the leaders of Germany, France, Italy and Romania visited Kyiv to push for Ukraine to be granted EU candidate status.
The company could use similar technical excuses to suddenly cut supplies in the future. And Putin will be able to continue to announce delivery reductions, as he did recently in Tehran, when he said that volumes flowing through Nord Stream 1 would have to be reduced to one-fifth of existing capacity, or that the Europeans would have to bring Nord Stream 2 online.
It's a very humiliating situation and one in which the EU and particularly Germany, which is mainly responsible for Europeans' current gas reliance on Russia and its regime, have no choice but to grit their teeth and bear it to gain time — time that will be needed to pump as much gas as possible into European reservoirs by winter.
Reliance on Russia to plunge from 2023 onwards
Currently, gas storage facilities in the EU are on average 65% full, which is very good. That makes the target of 80 to 90% in three-and-a-half months a realistic one. Poland, Sweden and Denmark have already reached this target. In Germany, the figure is currently 65%.
There is a chance of reducing the currently exorbitant gas prices if the storage facilities are filled to the maximum. But for Europeans, something else is taking priority: In the coming winter months, they need to equip themselves against a fundamental energy shortfall, which could inevitably lead to the restriction or even suspension of gas supplies to industries. If that happened, other sectors could grind to a halt. This would be a direct path to recession.
The focus is now on the coming winter. Things will get better as early as 2023 because gas deliveries via pipelines from other countries will increase significantly, new LNG terminals will be operational and several energy-saving measures will kick in. The German government believes it can end its dependence on Russian gas by the summer of 2024.
Filling gas storage tanks now most important task
But for now, the EU's dependence on Russian gas is still too high, making it economically and politically vulnerable and limiting its ability to help Ukraine. The most important task for the EU now is to quickly fill its gas storage facilities — a goal that involves putting up with Putin's gas games and even playing along.
Does Putin think he can use gas to toy around with Europe? Then let him think that! Does he rejoice in the illusion that it will still be possible to revive Nord Stream 2? Then let him rejoice! Did he want the return of the Siemens turbine from Canada that he held up as an excuse for slashing gas flows to Germany? Returning it was the right move! Will he need other equipment for Nord Stream repairs? In such a dispute, as in a real war, you have to be able to temporarily give up some positions to maintain your overall combat capability.
While Putin is playing all his gas games and telling Russian television viewers that everything is going according to plan, EU states are filling their gas storage facilities day by day.
Seen in this light, the resumption of supplies via Nord Stream 1, albeit in a severely limited form, represents an important late-stage victory for the Europeans. They have gained time and at least some gas deliveries.
This opinion piece was originally written in Russian