Opinion: The double-edged sword of low oil prices

The old rules no longer apply - at least, not with oil prices. A few years ago, the explosion of a pipeline in Nigeria was enough to drive up the price of "black gold." If more troubles arose, pundits said, oil prices would pass $150 a barrel and never look back - and they could even crack the 200-dollar mark. That was 2008 - when oil sold for $100 for a barrel.

There is no shortage of crises in 2014. By rights, oil prices should be going through the roof, especially since several major oil-producing countries - including Russia, Libya and Iraq - are all afflicted with crises.

Since June, however, oil prices have been dropping steeply. Everyone has been wondering just how far will oil prices fall. No one knows the answer.

Of course, countries that have to buy oil, like Germany, are the winners. Each year, the country spends $90 billion on oil imports. But not this year. A weak euro is preventing even greater savings, because oil has to be paid in dollars. At the same time, the current exchange rate helps German and European exporters.

A low oil price and a low euro - together, that adds up to a nice economic stimulus package. It helps consumers, too - and companies that sell consumer goods - since people can spend money they save on gasoline or heating fuel expenses on other things.

The situation is different in oil-producing countries. In Russia, alarm bells have long sounded, even if the Kremlin tries to act as if the situation is under control. The fall in oil prices combined with EU sanctions is a dangerous economic cocktail for the rulers at the Kremlin.

Venezuela presents a similar case. There, the state budget is based almost exclusively on revenue from oil sales - and so low oil prices are like a fuse on a powder keg. For President Maduro, they present a major political problem.

Is there a politically driven agenda pushing down oil prices?

Of course, some are quick to come up with conspiracy theories. Iran's President Rouhani, among others, smells a political conspiracy led by certain countries against the interests of the Islamic world.

Others see a US campaign against Russia to punish Putin, generated through US influence on Saudi Arabia - which has refused to cut back production despite the vertiginous drop in oil prices over the past several months. Still others suspect the Saudis themselves of overproducing on their own initiative, with a view to pushing the US tight-oil industry out of business, by dropping the oil price below the level at which tight-oil frackers can profitably operate. That's all nonsense.

The oil market is simply too big and has too many players for such conspirational moves. The reality is much simpler: Since the USA is a new player on the market that not only imports a great deal of oil, but also has in recent years begun producing enormous amounts of it via new oil-shale fracking techniques, there is just too much oil on the market - especially since demand is simultaneously falling in some regions.

No doubt, some producers may exit from this market because huge investments in expensive oil plays no longer pay off below a given price of oil. That could hit some American producers, just as it already has hit Canadian oil sands projects.

Political unrest in Venezuela or in other single-commodity producer nations is among the possible consequences.

OPEC is looking rather long in the tooth

Earlier, when old rules were still in force, the oil cartel OPEC would have come together in such a situation, and agreed to curb output to stop the decline in prices.

But that won't happen now, because neither the US nor Russia are OPEC member nations. Moreover, OPEC member states have often ignored OPEC's production volume allocations. Consequently, OPEC's recent meeting in late November degenerated into farce. The situation is unlikely to be any different at OPEC's next annual meeting in June 2015 - and who knows if that rather useless institution will even still exist then.

For now, OPEC oil consumers can be thankful for OPEC's inability to act effectively. A stimulus package of such dimensions could hardly have been achieved by any oil-consuming government. With $500 billion more purchasing power freed up in pocketbooks of the world's oil-importing nations, Christmas has come early.