The oil price trap

Drivers have been overjoyed in recent weeks, with the cost of a tank of gas down significantly since the beginning of the year. And the bill for heating oil is also currently much lower than it has been in the previous year. Oil industry experts estimate that German motorists alone have saved around 5 billion euros ($6.1 billion) in fuel costs this year.

The money saved is then spent on other things, which in turn boosts domestic demand and leads to a positive effect on the economy. And Germany's exporters also have a reason to rejoice. While the euro's exchange rate has depreciated significantly, exporters are able to sell their products at much cheaper prices. Against this backdrop, an increasing number of economists have revised their growth projections for the German economy upwards for the coming year. Does this mean 2015 will be a good year for Germany - and with it the entire eurozone?

It's unlikely that the price of oil will remain low. Markets worldwide have already become extremely nervous, as seen by the violent ups and downs of stock markets in recent weeks.

If prices were to fall further, then the eurozone could fall into a dangerous deflationary trap. In expectation of falling prices, people might refrain from major purchases and companies could shelve their investment plans.

This would cause a fall in demand, leading to a further decline in prices. The end result could be a long period of stagnation, similar to that experienced by Japan, the world's third largest economy.

Another source of danger is the oil-producing countries such as Venezuela and Russia, which are more dependent on oil revenues than other nations. In Russia, the cocktail of sanctions and declining oil prices is already having a tremendous impact. In addition to a plunging currency, the country is also facing problems due to capital flight and a loss of investor confidence in its economy.

Anyone who still believes that a bankruptcy of Putin's empire would not have an impact on the West is wrong. The current situation is reminiscent of the last big emerging market crisis in the late 1990s. At the time, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank jumped in to help the Russians by offering them billions of dollars. But that would be highly improbable this time around, given the current geopolitical situation.

If Russia were to become insolvent, then economists will have to entirely rewrite their economic forecasts. The US, also an oil-producing nation, has turned into a very important crude producer since the dawn of the fracking era. America is also partly responsible for the oversupply on the oil markets, and thus for a collapse in prices. But real danger is lurking even in the US - the fracking industry has issued high-interest loans to finance its expensive technology.

If prices continues to fall, at a certain point fracking will no longer remain commercially viable. Should companies then file for bankruptcy and be unable to service their debts, it could lead to a financial crisis similar to the crash of the US housing bubble in 2008.

And one more thing: Although it's nice to have lower oil prices at the moment, it's not a good sign to see a huge jump in the demand for gas-guzzling automobiles. The low price makes us forget that oil is a finite and dwindling commodity. It also draws governments and companies away from investing in new and renewable sources of energy.

We can therefore only hope that the price of oil will once again start to rise in the new year and leaves its current absurdly low level. Should it not happen, then the price swings of the last weeks of 2014 are just a foretaste of what's to come in 2015.