Sometimes it helps to take a look back at the past in order to understand the present, and prepare for the future. There are two main reasons why Donald Trump was able to win the US presidential election in 2016. One, he wasn't Hillary Clinton. Two, he was able to present himself as a political outsider. Both are intrinsically linked.
Many US voters continue to hate Clinton, the Democrats' 2016 presidential nominee, to this day. She and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, are seen as being part of the political elite that has significantly shaped the United States in recent decades. Many have blamed these politicians for increasingly setting the Washington insiders apart from ordinary US citizens, ensuring that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
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Though the social divide has widened even further under Republican President Donald Trump, this doesn't mean it will be easy for the Democrats to take back the White House in 2020.
Biden hasn't convinced progressives
Many major groups within the Democratic Party remain profoundly dissatisfied with their presumptive presidential nominee. They think that Biden, a 77-year-old white male with a decadeslong political career, is a political dinosaur who embodies stagnation.
For many Black, Latino, female and other progressive voters, he is far from being the candidate they wanted to usher in political change, stand up to corporations and revive the idea of the American dream.
Some hope Biden's running mate, Kamala Harris — though also seen as an establishment politician like the former vice president — will be enough to convince voters to come out en masse in November, to motivate those who are tired of politics and others who remain undecided. But will she be enough to convince those Democrats who voted Republican in 2016 to come back to the party, or even win over those Republicans who don't want another four years of Trump?
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No inspiring moments
Political conventions are traditionally a big celebration, a way to build ties between the Democratic communities. This is particularly important for the Democratic Party, which needs to get its various competing factions to support one basic idea if it's going to win this election. Ideally, the presidential candidate would embody this idea, but Biden doesn't have the necessary charisma.
It would have been interesting to watch the delegates reacting to Harris speak in front of a crowd, had the COVID-19 pandemic not turned the convention into a virtual event. It would have been such an inspiring moment, an occasion to bridge political differences, to see Michelle Obama, the first Black first lady, warm up the crowd ahead of a rousing speech by the woman who could possibly be the US' first female vice president of color.
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But there will be no such spectacle this year. Instead, the entire four-day convention is taking place online. Although the focus of much of the world will be on the US in the runup to the November 3 election, the main players will be forced to resort to virtual small-scale politics, hoping all the while not to be betrayed by a technical glitch that goes viral.
Without a doubt, in this context it's President Trump who has the larger stage. And if there's one thing he's good at, it's knowing which strings to pull to draw the attention of the global media.