Pakistan: Khan's party grapples with government crackdown

Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan isfacing terrorism charges, a situation which has drastically escalated the power struggle amidst an already tense political situation in the country. 

Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party has been under tremendous pressure since he was ousted in April this year following a no-confidence vote. The pressure on PTI is because of their repeated blame on the country's powerful military in their mass rallies, holding the top brass responsible for the regime change and supporting the newly-installed Shehbaz Sharif government.  

The charges against Khan came after the cricketer-turned-populist politician gave an aggressive speech on Saturday to thousands of his supporters at a rally in the capital Islamabad. In it, he criticized the arrest of his top aide and threatened the senior police officials and judge overseeing the case. He also alleged that his aides were tortured by the police.  

"We will file cases against you and will not spare you," Khan said, while addressing his supporters over the weekend.

Pakistan's powerful military, police and current government have been among the targets of Khan's remarks during his rallies and media interviews.

Khan has been granted a "transit bail" for three days, which bars police from arresting him over the terrorism charges.

Khan supporters gather outside his villa

Hundreds of PTI supporters gathered outside Khan's villa on the hillside in the outskirts of Islamabad on Monday to support their leader. PTI has warned that it would shut down the country through protests and rallies if Khan is arrested. 

"If this government arrests Imran Khan, the reaction will be countrywide and strong, which will lead the country to anarchy," said Fakhar Zaman Sial, a lawyer who was sitting near the entrance of Khan's villa. "We warned this government their time is up. If you arrest our leader Khan, people will March in the millions towards Islamabad to end this government."

"People are emotional for Khan and filing false cases against Khan is ridiculous. Is he a terrorist? No, he is a national leader with global recognition. We will not let this happen. They will have to arrest Khan over our dead bodies," said another supporter. 

"The plan to arrest Khan failed because of our die-hard workers who rushed to his residence Monday morning. I have been here since Sunday night," said Mohsin Raza, who arrived from Punjab's Sargodha district some 250 kilometers (155 miles) from Islamabad. 

"There is no courage in this government to arrest Khan. The government is censoring Khan's speeches out of his fear and soon this government will be toppled. People will drag them out from their houses like we have seen in Sri Lanka," Raza said. 

A deepening party divide

Analysts link the pressure building on Khan to the current military leadership and their deepening divide with Khan's party. 

"The current pressure faced by Khan and his party is not going to sustain beyond the longevity of the current military leadership's tenure. It is likely that after this particular period of pressure, if PTI survives, it will come out much stronger as an undisputed leading national party," Mosharraf Zaidi, a political analyst, told DW. 

Elizabeth Threlkeld, the director of the South Asia program at the Washington-based think tank the Stimson Center, told DW: "Khan is adept at using whatever political pressure he faces to his own advantage, weaving it into his populist narrative that has drawn massive crowds of supporters. Were the government to go too far in its pressure campaign against Khan and his party, there is a real risk of blowback given his committed support base."

Analysts believe that Khan's support from the masses across the country gives him an edge and keeps him at the center of Pakistani politics. 

"What Khan has at the moment that some of his predecessors did not have when they faced a crackdown is the ability to turn out street power," Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, told DW. 

Pakistan's media regulatory watchdog has banned TV channels from broadcasting Khan's weekend speech, saying that he is "spreading hate speech."

Fears  of 'deep and dangerous dissent'

"Arresting Khan will trigger deep and potentially dangerous dissent across the country, but especially in the key urban areas and in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa," political analyst Zaidi said. 

"The tactics of using the law and the judiciary to suppress political expression have always guided short-term results and long-term damage. This episode will be no different. The victims of these tactics today will grow politically stronger," Zaidi added.

"The increasing crackdown and now censoring of Khan's speeches is likely to backfire for the government — and plays directly into Khan's narrative of victimhood by the state," asserted Afzal. 

Threlkeld believes that if Khan is arrested or removed from politics for a longer period of time, his party would struggle internally. "PTI lacks another leader with Khan's level of following and charisma who could carry the party, creating a vulnerability at the top were Khan to be sidelined," she said.

However, Afzal does not believe Khan will lose his hold on PTI: "Khan's party has said his potential arrest will be a 'red line.' If it happens, the immediate consequences are likely to be a potentially dangerous confrontation between Khan's supporters and the state. I think the party will rally behind Khan, not find a different leader."

Edited by: Leah Carter