Former Pakistan PM's supporters root for Trump

When Imran Khan was ousted from power two years ago, he was quick to blame the United States for his downfall.

Khan was removed from premiership in 2022 through a no-confidence vote in Pakistan's Parliament. He was handed a 10-year prison sentence for corruption in January this year, weeks before Pakistan's general election in February.

However, the former cricket player-turned-politician alleged that his country's powerful military generals and Washington orchestrated his removal from power. The claim was unsubstantiated, but his supporters firmly believe it.

"Historically, the US has had an influence on Pakistan's foreign and security policies, and there is a widely held belief among many Pakistanis that Washington can influence Pakistani politics," Raza Rumi, a US-based Pakistani analyst, told DW.

Khan's supporters, however, are only critical of the US Democratic Party, President Joe Biden in particular, who they say didn't want Khan at the helm. They believe Khan's troubles started with Republican Donald Trump's defeat in the 2020.

"It is true that Biden never called Khan when he was prime minister. The Biden administration ignored Khan, and many (in Khan's administration) appealed to him to get in touch," Rumi said.

Mutual liking

During his presidency, Trump maintained good ties with Khan. The two leaders met in Washington and exchanged compliments during their meeting.

Trump and Khan share a similar leadership style. Both are populist politicians and are considered "political outsiders" in their respective countries.

"The PTI supporters are banking on Donald Trump's victory on November 5 and believe that he would pressurize Pakistan's military to change its approach towards Imran Khan. There is an exaggerated view of Trump being pro-Khan because he welcomed Imran Khan to the White House and later praised Khan in one of his speeches," said Rumi.

Supporters of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, founded by Khan in the 1990s, believe that the Khan-Trump alignment was disrupted by Biden's ascent to power. Now, they hope that Trump's potential return to the White House would ease matters for their imprisoned leader.

"The general perception in Pakistan is that Donald Trump is quite close to Imran Khan. Trump has expressed this in his interactions with the Pakistani American community and elsewhere. He developed a good relationship with Khan," Jimmy Virk, a Middle East-based Khan supporter and journalist, told DW. "Trump likes strong leaders."

Last week, the Pakistani-American Public Affairs Committee in the US endorsed Trump for president, claiming that a "legislative coup" under Biden led to Khan's ousting. The Biden administration has repeatedly denied the allegation.

Can Trump really help Khan?

Virk said that the "Washington establishment" has its own priorities, but "the president can influence policies like Trump did during his term."

One of the reasons behind Washington's proactive engagement with Islamabad during Trump's presidency was the protracted conflict in Afghanistan. The US wanted to end its involvement in the war-ravaged country after spending two decades and billions of dollars there. Pakistan, which had a considerable influence on the Afghan Taliban, was essential to make this happen. Khan, at the helm at the time, was needed to deliver on this.

But if Trump comes back to power, would he still need Pakistan and Khan?

"When it comes to Pakistan's domestic affairs, the US role is exaggerated," Rumi, the US-based analyst, told DW. "There is no direct military aid flowing into Pakistan, unlike the past decades when the country was a frontline state in the US-led war on terror or the special agreements that Islamabad entered during the Cold War.

"Now, the US has indirect leverage in the form of its power on the boards of Bretton Woods institutions, notably the IMF and the World Bank, which are important for Pakistan's fragile economy. Whether Trump will use these levers if elected president remains to be seen."

Virk, the Khan supporter, is optimistic that Trump will prefer Khan over other Pakistani politicians if he becomes president again.

"The vibrant Pakistani American community in the US has developed close ties with the Trump campaign and has promised to support Trump instead of the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris. Trump follows a non-interventionist and anti-war policy, and he is against 'regime change operations' on foreign lands."

Maria Sultan, an Islamabad-based security analyst, pointed out that the US-Pakistan ties tend to be more stable under a Republican administration.

"At the end of the day, US elections are dealt with by the US public. Because the Republicans have had a more stable Pakistan-US relations than the Democrats, Pakistanis are hopeful that Trump will bring in a new era of stability between the two countries," she told DW. 

Why Islamabad-Washington ties go beyond US presidents

Regardless of who sits in the White House, the US has historically developed and maintained close ties with Pakistan due to its geopolitical goals and security objectives in a region that includes Afghanistan, China, India and Iran.

The volatile situation in the Middle East and the conflict between Iran and Israel could mean the security dynamics in Pakistan's neighborhood have once again become crucial for the international community. For that reason, analysts say, the role of the Pakistani military establishment is now more important for the US than Khan or any other politician.

"Apparently the [military] apparatus in Pakistan has had extraordinary engagements with Saudi Arabia, especially after the conflict in the Middle East escalated," said UAE-based security analyst and journalist Ali K. Chishti.

"Washington sees Islamabad as an ally against Tehran in case of a conflict. There has been some sort of agreement on this during the US-Pakistan strategic talks. As for US elections, if Trump comes to power, the new administration will reach out to Pakistan without caring much about Khan or other politicians."

Alluding to the powerful military generals, Chishti said, "Trump knows who to engage with in Pakistan."

Additional reporting by Haroon Janjua, DW reporter in Islamabad.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic