Afghanistan Strategy

DW: Is Obama's strategy the right one?

Giles Merrit: It's rather hard to know because it's such a mixed message: more troops but starting to withdraw them by 2011, it seems to be sort of going forwards and going backwards at the same time. My feeling is that there is a missing element in all this, and that is that the Obama speech did not address what I think everybody is beginning to see as the central problem: that the Afghan government and the Afghan state do not seem to be reliable cornerstones for any strategy.

Are European governments likely to be swayed by Obama’s speech, by his call for more troops?

Yes, I think that when NATO ministers meet on Friday, there will be a follow-up to Obama’s call. I think I think there will be a strong feeling that we must give Obama, who after all is the ideal American president in many European eyes, as much support as we can. Whether it will be 8,000 extra troops I am not so certain.

You referred to failings of the Afghan government -- what do you think European governments should be doing in Afghanistan?

I sense that there is a growing feeling that we are making a basic mistake in thinking that Afghanistan is like a European country, that it is a clear sovereign state with a central government, and I think we’re increasingly beginning to see that people see Afghanistan as a series of interconnected regions. Dealing with political leaders that are regional-level is going to be more likely to hold the key to success in Afghanistan than relying on the Kabul government.

The war in Afghanistan is unpopular with European voters -- how are governments going to reconcile this with increasing American pressure to send in more troops?

I think European governments are going to have to pay much more attention and give much higher profile to the development side, like civil reconstruction and better governance, and basically be seen to be improving the lives of Afghans themselves. If it's seen just as a rather desperate war against the Taliban, that will continue to lose popular support around Europe.

Germany has always placed great emphasis on reconstruction in Afghanistan. How do you think the new German government is coping with the challenges of Afghanistan?

I think the trouble is that the Germans have been right about the need to emphasize development for a long time, but so far, none of the European countries can really point to a very proud record on development. I think we Europeans are probably better than the Americans are, but none of us can be very proud of what we've accomplished so far. Although there is a new German government and a new coalition, these things take a lot of time. I think it is where the political emphasis should be placed, not only in Berlin, but right across Europe.

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has been confidently referring to an extra 5,000 troops that the alliance will send in. Where do you think those troops are going to come from?

Germany for one, and France for another. We know more British troops are already being earmarked by Prime Minister Gordon Brown but it looks to me as if the German Bundeswehr, the German Air Force, are going to be asked to make a major new contribution.

How important is an exit strategy at this stage?

It is very dangerous to have an exit strategy. Once you start to move towards the door, it is very hard not to keep moving in that direction and very hard not to be encouraging your adversary. I think that is why there is quite a lot of surprise that President Obama has somehow tempered his huge extra commitment with this rather vague deadline to begin withdrawal.

Interviewer: Mark Caldwell (dm)
Editor: Michael Lawton