Political wrangling starts after German coalition collapse

What now? That was the question of the day after the collapse of the so-called traffic-light coalition — named for the colors of the three parties forming it: the center-left Social Democrats (red), the neoliberal Free Democrats (yellow) and the environmentalist Greens.

One day after the dramatic break-up, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's view was very different from that of the leaders of the center-right opposition, whose cooperation Scholz is seeking.

The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU) are not only the largest opposition bloc in the current parliament, they are also, according to current polls, most likely to emerge from new elections as the strongest force.

CDU leader Friedrich Merz who is tipped to become Germany's next chancellor urged swift action. "The government no longer has a majority in the German Bundestag and so we have to call on the Federal Chancellor — with a unanimous decision by the CDU/CSU parliamentary group — to call a vote of confidence immediately, at the beginning of next week at the latest," he said.

The Chancellor refuses to be rushed

A chancellor can call for a confidence vote in the Bundestag to confirm whether he or she still has sufficient parliamentary support. After the break-up of the coalition, only SPD and Green MPs will vote for Scholz, which means he will fail to garner a majority.

If a chancellor fails to win a majority, they can formally ask the president to dissolve the Bundestag within 21 days. Following the dissolution of parliament, new elections must be held within 60 days.

Scholz has set his own timetable, which he announced on Wednesday evening and intends to stick to. He does not want to call a confidence vote until January 15 and will continue with a minority government consisting of the SPD and the Greens until then.

"The government is doing its job, it will continue to do so in the coming weeks and months and the citizens will soon have the opportunity to decide how things will continue," he said Thursday morning.

Opposition can only topple the chancellor with a majority

The SPD and Greens want to push through a few more laws before the new elections. Their poll ratings are abysmal, and the coalition has recently managed to become the most unpopular government in  history of the Federal Republic of Germany.

Now they need time for their election campaign.

Nobody can force the chancellor to call a vote of confidence early although CDU leader Merz has accused Scholz of delaying tactics and "procrastination on account of political insolvency."

CSU leader Markus Söder sounded the same note, saying the government was a "shambles" and also calling for an immediate vote of confidence and new elections. "Scholz, Habeck and Lindner have failed completely," Söder told reporters in Munich. He described the break-up of the traffic-light coalition as "a symbol of Germany's decline."

President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, on the other hand, urged prudence. "Many people in our country are worried about the uncertain political situation in our country, in Europe, in the world, even after the elections in the US," Steinmeier said in Berlin. "This is no time for tactics and skirmishes, it is the time for reason and responsibility. I expect all those responsible to do justice to the magnitude of the challenges."

Steinmeier was a leading Social Democrat minister and held other political offices for around 18 years before he became president in 2017. Since then, his SPD membership has been suspended.

The 68-year-old is keen to make sure that he is not suspected of being partisan and has emphasized that he will keep a critical eye on the further proceedings.

Three of four FDP ministers resign

On Thursday, the president officially dismissed three of the four FDP cabinet ministers: Finance Minister Christian Lindner, Justice Minister Marco Buschmann and Education Minister Bettina Stark-Watzinger. Transport Minister Volker Wissing, on the other hand, decided to remain in office and left the FDP to do so.

The Finance Ministry will be taken over by Jörg Kukies, a close confidant of Chancellor Scholz. The economist studied at elite universities in France and the US and worked for the investment bank Goldman Sachs. Before moving to the Chancellery as State Secretary in 2021, he held the same position in the Finance Ministry.

Transport Minister Wissing will also take over the Ministry of Justice, and Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir will take on the Education Minister's portfolio.

What happens next?

The chancellor and his Economics Minister and Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck want to stick to their timetable. They point out that the SPD and Greens are not a "caretaker coalition," but a minority government and therefore fully capable of acting internationally.

Important political projects are still in the pipeline: Tax relief for medium and low-income earners is on the agenda, as well as SPD-Greens plans to bolster the statutory pension system.

Also on the list is a reform of immigration and asylum policies, with Scholz intending to rapidly implement the rules of the Common European Asylum System.

Finally, Scholz wants to push through "immediate measures" to support the ailing economy. Lowering energy prices for industrial companies is on the agenda, as are measures to secure jobs in the automotive industry and its suppliers. These could include subsidies to boost sales of electric cars.

Whether Scholz can secure the necessary parliamentary majorities to implement these plans is uncertain. The Bundestag is scheduled to meet for the last time this year on December 20.

This article was originally written in German.

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