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Polling yields few clues ahead of Scotland independence vote

September 14, 2014

Support for Scottish independence has surged by nine points according to one poll that puts the campaign for an independent Scotland in the lead for the first time. However, other surveys yield a mixed picture.

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Schottland Unabhängigkeit Edinburgh 13.09.2014
Image: Getty Images/M. Cardy

Support for the "Yes" campaign for Scotland to become independent from the United Kingdom has taken a lead over the "No" camp for the first time according to public opinion researcher ICM.

The poll showed "Yes" on 49 percent, with "No" - or "Better Together" - on 42 percent. With the nine percent of undecided responses removed, pro-independence support stood at 54 percent, with the pro-union campaign on 46 percent.

However, the survey - conducted on behalf the Sunday Telegraph - had a sample size of just 705, meaning it has a higher margin of error than most soundings.

Research by pollsters Panelbase, for the Sunday Times, showed opinion was more finely balanced - with support for independence at 49 percent and "No" at 51 percent. Although that left pro-unionists with a narrow lead, it also revealed a drop of one percent in favor of the status quo.

Meanwhile, two other surveys provided much happier reading for the "No" campaign. A sounding for the Observer Sunday newspaper, by research group Opinium, placed the "No" camp on 47.7 percent and "Yes" on 42.3 percent.

The poll appeared to back those findings of research conducted by Survation - on behalf of "Better Together" - which showed "No" on 54 percent and "Yes" on 46 percent.

Members of the Orange Order, a Protestant fraternal organisation, march in a show of solidarity for the Union of Britain in Edinburgh, Scotland, 13 September 2014. Polls are showing that the Yes and No camps are neck and neck in the Scottish Independence referendum. Scots will vote wether Scotland should become an independent country 18 September. EPA/ANDY RAIN +++(c) dpa - Bildfunk+++
The "No" campaign sought to distance itself from the Orange march amid fears it would fuel sectarianismImage: picture-alliance/dpa/A. Rain

Orange Order takes to streets

Thousands of pro-unionist members of the Protestant Orange Order marched through Edinburgh on Saturday, as the campaigning ahead of Thursday's referendum entered its final weekend.

According to organizers, as many as 15,000 people attended the march to show support for the United Kingdom.

However, the "No" campaign distanced itself from the protest amid fears it would fuel sectarian tensions between the country's Protestant and Catholic communities just a few days before Thursday's vote.

Meanwhile, the "Yes" camp - led by Scottish National Party (SNP) leader Alex Salmond - mobilized volunteers to deliver some 2.6 million leaflets over the weekend.

rc/crh (AFP, Reuters)