Putin has few friends left in Latin America

Latin America was caught unawares by the war in Ukraine. Official reactions varied from unequivocal condemnation by Colombia, Chile and Guatemala, to expressions of solidarity with Putin from Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela.

Peru, Ecuador, Honduras and Mexico, currently leader of the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council, issued calls for a ceasefire and talks.

 Argentinian foreign policy expert Juan Gabriel Tokatlian descibed the region's response as a "dramatic fragmentation."

"There was no coordination," Tokatlian, who is the vice director of Torcuato Di Tello University in Buenos Aires, said in a TV interview. The Organization of American States (OAS) drafted a joint statement, he pointed out, adding however that many countries including Uruguay, Jamaica, Argentina and Brazil refrained from signing it.

Solidarity with Putin

Brazil's response was bizarre: President Jair Bolsonaro initially declared himself "neutral" but was then reined in by Vice President, General Hamilton Mourao. Mourao condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and called for military support for Kyiv. Brazil's UN ambassador, meanwhile, has declared that Russia "crossed the red line."

Just a few days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Bolsonaro had traveled to Moscow and had expressly shown solidarity with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Even Argentina's President Alberto Fernandez offered his country as a gateway for Russian investments in Latin America.

By March 3, the diplomatic chaos had settled. When the UN General Assembly voted on a resolution calling on Russia to cease its violence against Ukraine and to refrain from any threat of a similar nature against another UN member country, the majority of Latin American countries voted in favor. Bolivia, Cuba, El Salvador and Nicaragua abstained. Venezuela criticized the bill but was not allowed to vote because the country has not paid its UN dues.

Old memories resurface

While dealing with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, violations of international law may not have been the only thing on the minds of Latin American governments; they also have to grapple with public opinion in their own countries. Images of bombed-out houses and fleeing civilians flickering across screens for days have prompted demonstrations of solidarity with Ukraine in Latin America.

At this point, there are no opinion polls yet, but invasions bring back bad memories in Latin America, including ones of the US invasion of Panama. As Mexico's UN Ambassador Juan Ramon de la Fuente put it: "Mexico has been attacked four times in its history and knows very well what that means."

For most people in the region, Russia is a distant, foreign country. Putin's appeal is limited to a small, albeit very active, group of left-wing intellectuals on social networks.

Russia, however,  remains a strategically important partner for Nicaragua, Cuba, and Venezuela — Russia is helping these countries to get around US and European sanctions. Venezuela depends almost entirely on Russia for wheat imports.

As a result, the region is wary of sanctions against Russia. NATO partner country Colombia is in favor of sanctions, while Mexico and Brazil are against. Brazil has an important reason to reject sanctions — it imports 69% of its fertilizer supply from Russia.

Sanctions remain controversial

Mexican Presidena Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is opposed to sanctions policies and has repeatedly condemned the US embargo against Cuba. However, Mexico is under considerable pressure from its free trade partner, the US, with which it conducts almost 90% of its foreign trade.

Sanctions are a sword of Damocles hanging over yet another country in the region —El Salvador. The country declared bitcoin the official currency in 2021 and wants to issue government debt instruments in this currency.

James Bosworth, editor of the Latin America Risk Report, warned that anyone in the financial sector who continues to use Russian money may be subject to sanctions. There is a very real risk of Russia moving money through these bonds, he said.

The reactions from Latin America are likely to be sobering for Putin after the Kremlin stepped up its involvement in the region in recent years  with arms deliveries to Venezuela, the opening of correspondent bureaus for the Sputnik Russian agency and the RT news channel, vaccine shipments during the coronavirus pandemic, loans worth millions to Cuba, and military exercises with Venezuela.

This article has been translated from German.