Undermining public support

The Hong Kong Federation of Students canceled the talks after opponents to the demonstrations descended on two of their camps on Friday, October 3, and tried to drive them off the streets. The protesters faced off with large crowds at the Mong Kok and Causeway Bay shopping districts, with police struggling to keep the situation under control.

"There is no other option but to call off talks," the students said in a statement. "The government and police turned a blind eye to violent acts by the triads targeting peaceful Occupy protesters.

The pro-democracy demonstrators had agreed to talks with the territory's leader in a bid to defuse tensions after nearly a week of mass demonstrations and unrest.

A day earlier, speaking just minutes before an ultimatum for him to resign expired, Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying had offered to meet with student protesters to discuss political reforms. Leung, however, refused to step down.

Frustrated at Beijing's refusal to allow genuine universal suffrage in the special administrative region, some student protesters had threatened to occupy government buildings if Leung failed to resign.

Professor Leo K. Shin, Hong Kong expert at the University of British Columbia in Canada, says in a DW interview that while public opinion is arguably still in favor of the protesters, clashes with residents or the storming of government buildings would likely severely undermine support for the pro-democracy campaign.

DW: Who do you think is behind the angry clashes and why?

Leo K. Shin: No doubt there are ordinary citizens who disagree with the aims or strategies of the protests. But the clashes initiated by people who claim to be pro-government seem to be fairly coordinated.

Hence, there are reasons to believe that many of these clashes were initiated by groups who are either tacitly or openly supported by the authorities.

Do you think it was the right call by the student leaders to cancel the talks?

The protesters are now trying to put pressure on the government to help control the clashes initiated by members of the pro-government camp. Talks are ultimately needed. But, from the point of view of the student leaders, by allowing the clashes to fester, the government doesn't seem to be entering the talks in good faith.

Now that the talks are off, what do you expect to happen?

It is entirely within the power of the Hong Kong government to contain the damage. Lives have been disrupted, people have been injured, and properties have been damaged. If the only aim and strategy of the government is to clear the streets, there will be bloodshed and chaos.

If Leung Chun-ying, China's anointed head of Hong Kong, is clear-headed, he should immediately offer some conciliatory gestures and lay down a meaningful framework for talks.

Should the protesters decide to occupy government buildings, what impact would this have on the dynamics of the protests?

If protesters begin to occupy government buildings, they will push the movement into a more radical direction and might trigger a more intense and sustained use of force by the Hong Kong government.

Do you believe such a move would shift the balance of public opinion?

Yes, it might cause those in Hong Kong who have remained silent so far to speak out against the movement.

What effect do you think the clashes with other HK residents may have on the Hong Kongers' view of the pro-democracy campaign?

The people in Hong Kong would like to see peace and calm return to the territory. So any clashes - such as the ones that recently erupted - are going to lead to some loss of support for the pro-democracy campaign. But if the government is seen to be abetting such clashes, public opinion could quickly swing the other way.

One of the purposes of the clashes initiated by members of the public who claim to be pro-government is to create a sense of chaos and hopelessness and thus undermine public support for the pro-democracy campaign.

To which extent have Hong Kongers defied the way Beijing deals with protests?

The Chinese government is not known to deal with mass protests kindly. In that context, the fact that the occupation protests in Hong Kong have lasted for almost a week now is extraordinary. It clearly speaks to the deep dissatisfaction felt by the people of Hong Kong.

Hong Kong's leader said earlier that his government had agreed to hold a dialogue with pro-democracy student activists, but that such a discussion must take place "within the context of Chinese law." What does Chief Executive Leung mean by that?

My understanding is that what he meant was that the framework for the 2017 election - which had been laid down by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress on August 31 - was not open to negotiation. If it is up to Leung, I don't think he would compromise.

Both the Chinese government and the student protesters seem to be losing patience after the weeklong street protests. What kind of compromise could be reached?

The Chinese government could offer to rewrite the framework to take into account some of the suggestions made by the more moderate members of the pro-democracy camp.

The framework now states that between two to three candidates for the 2017 Chief Executive election will be pre-selected by a nomination committee composed of 1,200 members from among the elites in Hong Kong. This pre-selection arrangement will not lead to true democracy.

In your view, what will be the likely outcome of the protests?

Unless genuine dialogue takes place - and the order probably has to come from Chinese President Xi Jinping himself - I am afraid there could be bloodshed.

Leo K. Shin, a native of Hong Kong, is a historian of China at the University of British Columba, Vancouver, Canada.