Climate Change in Europe

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecast for Europe and the Alps is dizzying: more heat waves and drought, more floods as glaciers melt, and the widespread extinction of species as global warming takes effect.

It said sea-level rise in low-lying coastal areas will threaten two and a half million people a year. The bleak assessment is also not a vision of the future; scientists say climate change is already occurring in Europe.

These specific findings for Europe were presented at a press conference on Wednesday in Geneva, which is home to the United Nations climate panel.

Thawing of glaciers

The IPCC report describes the ongoing thawing of European glaciers and permafrost, the delayed winter freeze of rivers and lakes, the lengthening of growing seasons and the earlier spring arrival of migratory birds.

Andreas Fischlin, an author of the report, said extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and more lie ahead this century.

Summer heat waves will likely occur every other year, and could be responsible for thousands of deaths, just like the heat wave of 2003, he said. And, summers will generally become increasingly hotter.

"It has been estimated in the report that in the first two weeks of August in the summer of 2003 in Europe, we had 35,000 additional deaths," Fischlin said. "Adaptation will be necessary to address unavoidable impacts."

Up to two degrees warmer in Alps

The report found that global temperature has increased by 0.6 to 0.7 degrees in the past 100 years. In comparison, temperatures in the Alps have risen by one and a half or two degrees.

Martin Beniston, contributing author to the report, said the effects this degree or two of warming will have on Europe's water resources are immense.

"In climatic terms, anything that takes place in the central part of the Alps, which is the source region of many of Europe's river ways will have a significant impact on water resources," he said.

He said the Alps are often referred to as the "water tower of Europe" because they funnel water in many directions in different parts of the European continent.

He warned, however, that "not only the Alps themselves are impacted, but also the highly populated regions downstream that depend on water resources originating in the Alps for drinking water, for energy supply, for agriculture, for industry."

North to fare better

Studies indicate that southern Europe will be more severely affected than northern Europe.

Its already hot and semi-arid climate is expected to become warmer and drier. More droughts will threaten its water resources, farms and forests.

The IPCC report predicts that Europe's northern regions will have more precipitation and run-off. This will cause greater flooding, coastal erosion, and loss of species.

Scientists say carbon emissions will have to be reduced by more than 50 percent globally in order to stabilize current levels in the atmosphere.

Beniston said that any action the EU would take would be helpful, but limited.

"The European Union is just one entity," Beniston pointed out. "It's certainly an important entity in global economic circles, but it's not the only one. Reducing emissions even by 30 or 40 or 50 percent is still not going to solve the problem, really, but it would be a good step in the right direction."

The report recommends that certain measures should be taken to address Europe's climate changes: the development of detailed coastal management plans, the expansion of nature reserves to conserve species and the promotion of new tourism activities to replace those that are lost.