Russians Go to Polls Under Shadow of Terrorism

Going into Sunday’s parliamentary election, opinion polls show the United Russia party leading with 30-40 percent of the vote, far ahead of the opposition Communist party. A sweeping victory by the Kremlin-backed party is almost certain and will boost President Vladimir Putin’s standing ahead of next year’s presidential election.

But the Kremlin’s anticipated win has been overshadowed by a suicide bombing on a commuter train in southern Russia on Friday which killed 42 people and injured more than 170. Putin said the attack, which has been linked to Chechen rebels, was aimed at destabilizing the country ahead of the crucial vote.

In response to the attack, security was tightened at polling booths, train stations and markets across the country. Russia’s election chief, Alexander Veshnyakov, said on state television "unprecedented measures" would be taken to ensure every Russian could cast their vote.

Low voter interest

If voter turnout on Sunday is down, fear of a terrorist attack will only be one reason many people chose to stay at home. In the run-up to the elections, voter interest in the parties and their issues has been relatively low. This is largely due to the publishing of "pre-defined results" ahead of the elections, said Nikolai Pedrov, a political analyst at the Moscow-based Carnegie Foundation. People already know ahead of time who the winner is, so there is no reason for them to go out and vote, Pedrov told DW-RADIO.

Critics also suggest that the expected low voter turnout may be a consequence of the Kremlin’s overbearing influence on the elections, where United Russia uses state control of television to dominate the media and essentially silence the opposition. The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which is monitoring the elections, has said that pre-election campaigning was marred by pro-Kremlin bias in the media, particularly across state-owned television.

Many Russians also do not see the elections as decisive. The Duma is a relatively weak body whose power has been whittled away during Putin’s reign. For many its influence has been virtually taken away as it developed into a rubber stamp parliament.

"The next Duma will pass any law, including constitutional ones, including changing the constitution which will not be controlled in any way by civil society," said Irina Khakamada, deputy leader of the small liberal Union of Right Forces (SPS).

Aiming for a constitutional majority

The main question ahead of tallying the final results is whether United Russia, an alliance of pro-Kremlin factions headed by Putin’s ally, Interior Minister Boris Gryzlov, will manage to get a two-thirds majority in the 450-seat parliament. If United Russia and its allies can secure 260 seats in the Duma, it would comprise a majority and essentially allow Putin to institute constitutional changes.

"I think that the Kremlin is pushing for a parliamentary majority -- perhaps allowing Putin to run in 2008," said Michael McFaul of the Carnegie Foundation. The two-thirds majority would enable Putin to change the constitution so he can run again after the end of his likely second term.

"The goal is to get as close as possible to a constitutional majority," Petrov said.

Putin, whose approval ratings are around 80 percent, is set for re-election in March and has thrown his full weight behind United Russia. Lending the party his face for ads, the party has campaigned with the slogan: "Together with the President."