Sahel: Military regimes under pressure to succeed

Life in Bamako, the capital of Mali, went on as usual this Friday. That is, except for the increased military presence on the Avenue de l'Indépendance amid the palpable relief that things didn't turn out as some had feared.

The CMAS (Coordination of Movements, Associations and Sympathizers), the organization under influential imam Mahmoud Dicko, had called for a "peaceful protest march" that was opposed by another group close to the country's military government — a perfect scenario for clashes.

Dicko disapproves of the government delay in elections announced for next February. "Those in charge decided to postpone the elections slightly. This is a de facto extension of the transition period" with no new timetable, said Youssouf Daba Diawara, coordinator of the CMAS, ahead of the planned protests. "We would like to see a civil transition organized."

But shortly after the CMAS announced their protest, the CDM (Collective for the Defense of the Military) announced their own — at the same time and along the same route. The governor of Bamako subsequently prohibited protests, and CMAS said it would postpone the march.

Interim president under pressure

This episode highlights the struggles of Mali's coup government under interim President Assimi Goita, now in its third year, to establish itself.

"Compared to the first hours of the transitional military government, support for the military government is less cohesive," said Ornella Moderan, a researcher at the Clingendael Institute, an international relations think tank in The Hague. She added that several internal conflicts have come to light since.

Conditions in neighboring countries have also changed since Goita took power in May 2021. The following January, the military seized power in Burkina Faso. Niger, which maintained good relations with its Western partners under President Mohamed Bazoum, has been governed by coup leader Abdourahamane Tiani since July.

Threat of terrorism remains

Still, these military governments remain popular among certain segments of society, said Moderan, whose research focuses on conflict in the Sahel region. But the challenges they face in the fight against terrorism are significant, as none of the three countries, which signed a mutual defense pact just last month, are under complete government control.

"The security situation is fragile," said Lompo Alassane, civil society coordinator in the provincial capital of Fada N'Gourma in eastern Burkina Faso. "Some areas are not accessible. We can't move beyond a certain radius from the big cities."

Efforts to gain control have had some success, though. About 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) north of Fada N'Gourma, an attack by 500 armed fighters was repelled on Wednesday morning, according to national broadcaster RTB TV. Government soldiers and volunteer fighters also killed "a large number of terrorists" after they attacked a military outpost in the far west of the country on the border with Mali, the station reported.

France's untimely withdrawal

But the region remains mired in constant conflict with no improvement in sight. The presence of international troops since Islamists advanced on Mali's capital 10 years ago has failed to provide a breakthrough in the fight against terrorism, leading to protests in all three countries.

The coup in Niger in July was also accompanied by anti-French sentiments in the streets. Moussa Tchangari of the civil rights organization Alternative Espaces Citoyens also spoke out against the French presence there. France has now begun to withdraw its troops from Niger after already withdrawing from Mali just last year, also under pressure from the regime.

"Of course, many people will be relieved," Tchangari told DW. However, observers fear the situation will worsen after the French soldiers leave. Tchangari added that he was also concerned about a new wave of deadly attacks in western Niger. "Since the military seized power here and there, the situation has not improved. So the solution is not military — it must also be a political solution."

"This is not a question of who our allies are, with whom we cooperate," Tchangari added. The situation in Mali has not improved since the withdrawal of the French, though that is precisely what the new leaders had promised, he said. "I have not been able to observe an improved situation anywhere with the takeover of the military. On the contrary, the security situation is deteriorating in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso."

Propaganda and repression

Tchangari's critique goes against the general perception in Niger, however. For Sahel expert Moderan, this can be explained by the fact that the coup was still not long ago. Niger's military government still benefits from an advance of trust, whereas Mali's leadership has already exhausted its supply.

But why do the architects of these coups remain largely unchallenged? "Substantial restrictions on civil liberties characterize the transitional governments in the three countries. We could see many cases where journalists were arrested, or critical media were banned," Moderan said.

She said anyone who questions the public narrative could expect to be publicly accused of "anti-patriotism" or even prosecuted. In Mali, for example, the leader of the "Yerewolo" movement, Adama Ben Diarra, was recently sentenced to two years in prison, one of which was suspended after calling for a return to civilian rule.

Therefore, the information disseminated in the region usually corresponds to the positive interpretation of the governments. In Mali, military successes are proclaimed to be "heroic tales," Moderan said. Another strategy has been spreading "a conspiracy theory that says that the former partner countries, especially France, would arm the existing groups to bring about a failure of the transitional governments and thus prove that France and its partners are indispensable."

This conspiracy theory can be observed in official discourses in Niger. Meanwhile, Mali has already turned to the UN Security Council with such arguments. However, she added that no evidence has been provided to support these claims.

With reporting by Mahamadou Kane in Bamako.