Yemen's future

Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh has enjoyed years of patronage from Saudi Arabia; being handed vast sums in financial aid from north of the border in return for his help in dealing with al Qaeda, and the flow of illegal immigrants and drugs across the 1770 kilometer-long (1,100 miles) border the two countries share.

However Saudi Arabia's rulers have become increasingly frustrated with the Yemeni president's leadership in recent times. Instead of acting as a collaborator, they now regard Saleh as a facilitator of the unrest that the Saudis see as a potential threat to their own rule.

Since the crisis in Yemen began to escalate in March, Saudi foreign policy toward Yemen has developed into an internal security issue. The growing popular protests and tribal infighting in Yemen have proved to be less manageable than those seen in Bahrain or in the restive Shia enclaves within Saudi Arabia itself.

Exerting Pressure

In an effort to gain some control over events, the Saudis have begun to exert public pressure on Saleh for the first time through its prominent role in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the alliance of Sunni monarchies in the Persian Gulf. Saudi Arabia has been at the heart of the GCC initiative to convince Saleh to step down, an agreement that the Yemeni president has approved - and reneged upon - three times.

Now with Saleh in Riyadh, the Saudis have him where they want him. While publicly reiterating the message that Yemen must be free to choose its own leaders, it is unlikely that the Saudis will allow Saleh to return, using the opportunity to pressure him into ratifying the GCC deal and turning his enforced temporary exile into a permanent one.

In the short-term, the installation of Vice President Abdul Rabu Mansoor Hadi as interim leader has been welcomed by the Saudis, especially as Hadi has already made in-roads into breaking the violent stalemate that Saleh has been held responsible for by his opponents.

However, while Hadi has managed to broker a truce with opposition tribal leader Sheikh Sadiq al-Ahmar, the Saudis don't see him as a long-term successor to Saleh.

Strong leadership

Saudi Arabia's influence and connections in Yemen don't end with Saleh. Sheikh Sadiq himself has links to some very powerful senior Saudis with his Hashid tribe, the largest in Yemen, receiving millions of dollars every year from Riyadh in exchange for their allegiance and compliance.

Another beneficiary, the powerful General Ali Mohsen who recently defected from Saleh's forces to join the opposition, has strong links to Saudi Arabia's staunch Islamic conservative Interior Minister Prince Nayef, the man currently responsible for Riyadh's 'Yemen file' and a leading voice in Saudi Arabia's policy toward its neighbor.

"I suspect that whoever takes power will have to enjoy the support of the Hashid and Bakil tribal confederations and from the army as they are the three major stakeholders inside Yemen, with the Saudis being the major external stakeholder," Dr. Kristian Ulrichsen, a Middle East expert at the London School of Economics, told Deutsche Welle.

However, despite the relationships Saudi Arabia has with different factions within Yemen, it is unclear who the Saudis would promote as their favored candidate and its even less clear if this person would be good for the country or the region.

"The Saudis have a history of trying to shape and manage Yemeni political affairs, and a history of not judging well who is best for Yemen, or for Saudi Arabia," Barbara Bodine, the former US ambassador to Yemen, told Deutsche Welle.

"The Saudis by all accounts are as disconnected from the evolving new leadership as other outside players. They may prefer someone more conservative, closer to their social and cultural conditions, but that person may not have sufficient support or legitimacy within Yemen."

Bodine said that even if Saudi Arabia did favor one leader over another, this would not necessarily mean that the Saudis would have the power to install their preferred candidate. Instead of attempting to play kingmaker, Yemen's future would be best served by Saudi Arabian aid, not meddling, she said.

"The budget support that Saudi Arabia provides is critical for Yemen but stipends to tribes and other factions outside the government, a tolerance for chronic corruption are not helpful," Bodine said. "Saudi largesse would be well served long term if it were structured into sustainable economic development in all areas of the country."

New partner

The United States is also very concerned over the future of Yemen and while the permanent exile of Saleh would deprive the US of a dubious ally in the fight against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the terror organization's most dangerous affiliate in the region, Washington has reluctantly stated that Yemen's stability rests on Saleh's removal.

Much like the situation the Saudis face over deciding on a preferred successor, the State Department and the Pentagon have yet to identify who would be the best partner for the US in Yemen should Saleh remain in Saudi Arabia.

The US believes the stability of Yemen has a strong bearing on wider global security issues, which is why the Pentagon and the CIA have been increasing deployments of operatives and hardware to help in the targeting of Islamic militants in the country. President Saleh's cooperation in American efforts to undermine AQAP in Yemen earned his regime millions of dollars in aid in return and any future leadership will be expected to do the same.

However, this is not a foregone conclusion.

"A new leader may well have very different priorities from those of the United States, particularly in the counter-terrorism field, and might not be willing to place the same level of emphasis that the US has done on pursuing the threat from Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula," Ulrichsen said.

Barbara Bodine believes that any deal based on counter-terrorism cooperation in return for US funding would fail to address the real problems in Yemen and perpetuate the cycles that keep the country from developing.

"Yemen's instability is a reflection of deep, fundamental challenges that transcend whomever or whatever governs Yemen," she said. "A focus on security - especially a narrow focus on AQAP by either the Saudis or the US - that does not address development in a consistent, measured manner will not address the issues that provide the environment that feeds extremism and instability."

Author: Nick Amies

Editor: Rob Mudge