Negative superlatives

The table at this point in the season is unusual in that a gap of six points has opened up between the league's most hapless quartet and the worst of the rest. And the relegation fight that's shaping up is also atypical because of the relatively big names it features.

Nuremberg and Freiburg are both newly promoted, small clubs who probably figured they'd be still battling the drop at this point. However, Hanover and Hertha Berlin have been fixtures in the first division since around the turn of the millennia and must be wondering, rightly or wrongly, why their status is in such serious doubt.

So how did these teams get where they are? What are their chances of squeaking through in May and earning the right to wage another top-flight campaign? And what would be the long-term effects for each other the clubs, if relegated.

The answers, it turns out, are a lot more positive for smaller clubs than their bigger rivals.

Nuremberg's age

The Club, as Bavaria's other first-division team are known, seriously miscalculated in banking they could get another season out of former goal-scoring leader Marek Mintak and a central defense all the wrong side of 30.

As a result, Nuremberg have had a hard time building leads this season, and when they have, they've usually failed to hold them. Even last weekend's stunning win over Leverkusen turned into a nail-biter. After going up 3-0 in the first hour, Nuremberg's back four remembered which jersey they were wearing and conceded a pair of goals in seven minutes.

Nonetheless, the Club held on for the 3-2 win, and there are good reasons to think that they might just hold on as well to their spot in division one as well.

The team has looked more structured under coach Dieter Hecking, who took over this winter, and their remaining schedule is in their favor. Nuremberg only have to play two of the current top five teams and none of the top three.

And if Nuremberg do go down, it'll be nothing new. Aside from Bielefeld, the Club has been relegated more often than any other team in the Bundesliga. And they only increased their budget by six million euros ($8.2 million) this season, mostly to cover higher player wages, so the books should basically be balanced.

Hanover's tragedy

Perennially middle-of-road Hanover started this season in typically mediocre fashion, only to be rocked by the suicide of their captain and heart-and-soul, German national goalkeeper, on November 10, 2009.

The team was understandably shocked and went on a 13-game winless streak, including nine straight losses. It ended only last weekend with a more than fortunate victory against Freiburg.

New coach Mirko Slomka, who had a pretty decent record at former club Schalke, brought in a team of psychologists. But Hanover's poor form is likely as much to do with the body as the mind.

The team spent big in 2008-9 and had little to invest this year. That's come home to roost, as Hanover has been forced to replace a toothless frontline with two untried strikers from Ivory Coast, and the defense has been bleeding own goals.

Ironically, it was an own goal from Freiburg that finally broke Hanover's negative streak, but Slomka has little reason to take much heart either from that win or the remaining schedule. Hanover still have to face four of the five top teams and have no more matches against their competition at the bottom.

Hanover President Martin Kind has been a vocal advocate of easing Bundesliga rules forbidding majority investors, arguing that it's impossible to turn a profit on the circa 53 million euros his club earns in annual revenues.

The decline in that sum that division two would bring would be a serious blow to a team that's already reeling.

Freiburg's Free-Fall

Having given away needed points to Hanover with an own goal and what seemed like a dozen missed sitters at the weekend, Freiburg officially became the worst team of the second half of this season, with only two points in 2010.

In retrospect, Freiburg's free-fall isn't that surprising. The southern-German club laughed its way to the second-division title last season on the back of its prolific attack, but once the euphoria of playing in top flight wore off, they found they had a problem. If they try to defend, they can't score. And if they try to score, they can't defend.

Making matters worse is the fact that top striker Mohamadou Idrissou has made it clear he feels he's too good for the team and has been linked with a move to Schalke.

But Freiburg still have two aces up their sleeves. One is their relaxed attitude. With an estimated budget of 28 million, the club is – financially speaking – one of the smallest in the league. The team has a history of bouncing between leagues and an almost unique tradition of retaining its coach as it does. So the really heavy sort of pressure is off – a valuable commodity for a team struggling to pick up points wherever it can.

Moreover, Freiburg only still have to face Bayern and Dortmund. The majority of the remaining opposition are in-the-clear mid-table teams, which should be a somewhat relaxing scenario.

Hertha's Nightmare

With two wins, three losses and three draws in 2010, Hertha Berlin haven't been all that bad by this season's standards. The catch is that merely not being bad won't be good enough to avoid the drop.

Having earned only six points, a near-league-record low, in the first half of the season, Hertha have a huge hole to climb out of. And the improvements they've made thus far, a stabilized defense and a slightly more dangerous attack, have been nowhere near enough.

Hertha were unfortunate not to get any points from their past two losses to Hoffenheim and Hamburg. But worryingly, captain and German national defender Arne Friedrich was at fault for the goals that lost both of those games, and their offensive players have hit the posts almost as often this year as they've found the back of the net.

Coming off a season in which they challenged for the title, Hertha's problems started with a debt-reduction program that left them ill-staffed at the back and front. The holes have been plugged, and Berlin's unpopular coach Friedhelm Funkel can expect luck to even out, but he's going to need plenty of it.

Berlin must still face four of the top five teams, as well as red-hot Stuttgart and reigning champions Wolfsburg. Do the math, and that means there's a big, big chance Hertha are are second-division bound.

And that's where the numbers get even more nightmarish. The team is saddled with 30 million euros of debt. Given the much lower revenues in division two, a relegated Hertha would have to sell most of their talent, starting with standout midfield prospect Gojko Kacar just to make ends meet and would likely stay down for the foreseeable future.

Hertha's only real chance is if title contenders Schalke and Leverkusen choke in the clutch, and the other members of this seasons quartet of the hapless continue their dire ways.

Author: Jefferson Chase
Editor: Chuck Penfold