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Scotland's future

Peter Geoghegan, GlasgowSeptember 12, 2014

With less than a week to go before Scotland's referendum on independence from the United Kingdom, what initially looked like a clear 'No' vote could go down to the wire as the 'Yes' campaign picks up steam.

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A pro-independence flag help up in the air Photo: Andy Buchanan/AFP/Getty Image
Image: Andy Buchanan/AFP/Getty Images

'Vote Yes for a Better Future,' reads a note written in black felt pen on a yellow gift tag suspended between a pair of saplings on Buchanan Street, Glasgow's busiest shopping street. This is a 'wish tree,' an increasingly common sight as part of Scotland's independence campaign.

"We're asking folk to write their wishes for Scotland," says Aileen McKay, a comparative literature graduate who set up the Buchanan Street wish tree. Around 50 tags hang on the thin stretch of twine: there is 'Change for the Better' and 'Scotland is Beautiful Keep It That Way.' There is 'Another Scotland is Possible' and even a 'Vote No.'

"I want to affect a change in my lifetime. I don't see change coming from within the existing structures so we need independence," says McKay, an activist with the leftwing Radical Independence Campaign. She wears a blue 'yes' badge. As she speaks, a couple of teenage girls stop to add their wishes to the tree. One simply writes: 'yes.'

Young people, polls would suggest, are increasingly in favor of Scotland leaving the 300-year union with England. Independence has a lead of 19 points among 16 to 24 year-olds, according to a survey published last weekend.

Woman on street Foto: DW-Korrespondent Peter Geoghegan,
For Mckay independence is the only way forwardImage: DW/P. Geoghegan

Too close to call

There has been a dramatic turn around in Scotland's referendum campaign in recent weeks. At the start of August, 'No' was a massive 22 points ahead but now the vote is too close to call.

With every ballot potentially crucial, both sides are working overtime to convince the Scottish electorate. Around the corner from the Buchanan Street wish tree, outside the Gallery of Modern Art, former secretary of state for Scotland, Jim Murphy, is making the case for the union in front of a crowd of around 80 people.

"Independence is forever. There are no guarantees. There is no going back," says Murphy, now a Labour MP for nearby East Renfrewshire. The politician stands on two plastic crates that once carried bottles of Irn-Bru, Scotland's favorite soft drink. A week earlier, Murphy halted his 100-date tour of Scotland when a yes supporter threw an egg at him during one of his public addresses - the closest Scotland's civil secessionist debate has come to violence.

Man addressing crowd Foto: DW-Korrespondent Peter Geoghegan,
Jim Murphy warns of the consequences of Scottish independenceImage: DW/P. Geoghegan

Should I stay or should I go?

Some in the crowd wave blue and red 'No Thanks' flags. There are cheers when Murphy attacks nationalist claims that they would continue to share a currency with the rest of the UK or that Scotland would be better off on its own. "You don't have to vote for the break up of our country to prove you're Scottish. Being part of the United Kingdom can make us more prosperous," he says.

Undecided voter Craig Hazlett, 29, has stopped to listen to Murphy's pitch on his way home from work as a floorer. Streaks of paint line his overalls. He is unswayed by the political showmanship. "We have been hearing the same rhetoric from both sides. There is no unbiased opinion. The most important things is the economics. How will the start up costs be funded? There is no unbiased opinion coming out with hard statistics."

Although there is barely a week to go to polling day on September 18, Hazlett says he is "not going to rush into a decision."

Glaswegian artist, Helen, is "leaning more to no," which, she says makes her "uncool" among her friends. A slew of leading Scottish artists, writers and musicians have all come out in favor of independence. Last weekend, 1,300 signed an open letter backing a 'Yes' vote.

No clear choice

"I feel so confused by both sides that in the end I think I'll end up trusting my gut," says Helen. 'I have fears for my parents generation and for people who are going into retirement."

In a bid to shore up flagging support, pro-UK politicians have said that they will devolve more powers to the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh. Earlier this week former UK prime minister Gordon Brown said that a 'no' vote would lead quickly to greater local control over taxation, welfare and finance.

Not all Scots are convinced by this sudden offer of a stronger devolved parliament, coming as it does very late in the two-year long referendum campaign.

"I am voting yes because I don't think you will get a fairer distribution of wealth from Westminster," says Morgan Carthy, 59, from the Drumchapel estate on the outskirts of Glasgow. "I have no faith they will seriously redistribute wealth."

Social justice has emerged as a major theme of the referendum debate. Scottish nationalists say that only independence will deliver a fairer Scotland. It is a message that, polls suggests, is appealing to the key swing constituency: Labour voters in urban areas, such as Glasgow.

"I voted Labour in the 70s, 80s and 90s. Then I gave up. There's a lot of people like me," says Carthy.

The question now is whether there are enough disillusioned Scots to fulfil the nationalists' long-held wish: independence.

Mel Gibson Copyright: imago/EntertainmentPictures
Scotland the brave?Image: imago/EntertainmentPictures