Somaliland: What elections mean for regional power dynamics

Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, is holding its presidential election on Wednesday.

Under international law, Somaliland belongs to Somalia. However, in 1991, the region at the northwestern tip of Somalia unilaterally declared its independence even though its sovereignty claims have remained unrecognized by the international community.  

"The Somaliland elections are set as planned," Mohamed Warsame Dualeh, former presidential advisor and current member of the Somaliland People's Party (SPP), told DW.

"The National Election Commission (NEC) did all the preparations exceptionally well," he said, adding that the public is ready to vote and there are "no reports of violence or confrontations in any part of the country." 

"This election will end two years of political instability," according to Mubarak Abdulahi Daljir, a politician, economist and vice president of Admas University in the capital Hargeisa. Admas has its main campus in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

"It will further improve Somaliland's democratic credentials, and it will improve Somaliland's image in the international arena," Daljir told DW.

Tense situation in the Horn of Africa

Somaliland has become the center of a major dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia.

In January, Somaliland's leader, Muse Bihi Abdi, signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

Under the deal, Ethiopia would lease land from Somaliland to build a naval base, while Ethiopia would use Somaliland's Berbera port for international trade. 

Somaliland, in return, would receive a stake in the state-backed Ethiopian Airlines and a promise from Abiy's government that it would "make an in-depth assessment towards taking a position regarding the efforts of Somaliland to gain recognition."

"We are hoping for other countries in Africa and beyond to follow suit," Daljir added.

Details of the agreement have not been published, and the Ethiopian government has not officially confirmed or denied the possible recognition of Somaliland.

The MoU sparked great anger in Somalia, which considers Somaliland its territory, and led to a diplomatic and military spat with Ethiopia.

In April 2024, Somalia expelled the Ethiopian ambassador from the country and withdrew its representative from Addis Ababa.

The Somali foreign minister threatened to support armed groups in Ethiopia if Addis Ababa did not stop its steps towards the diplomatic recognition of Somaliland.

In August 2024, Somalia concluded a security agreement with Egypt, which supplied weapons to the Somali government in Mogadishu,  shortly after the deal was inked.

Ethiopia and Somalia united by fight against Al-Shabaab

According to the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), a Berlin-based think tank, it is unlikely that a serious armed conflict will break out between Ethiopia and Somalia.

That is partly due to the military balance of power — Ethiopia is one of the largest military powers in the region and far superior to Somalia — and partly because both states have a common interest in fighting the Al-Shabaab militias in southern Somalia, which want to establish an Islamic state in the Horn of Africa.

According to the SWP, Ethiopia is currently deploying around 10,000 soldiers in Somalia, only one-third of whom are part of the AMISOM and ATMIS peacekeeping missions of the African Union (AU).

The rest of the Ethiopian contingent are to contain the capabilities of Al-Shabaab in the neighboring country, maintain a buffer zone and thus prevent their attacks in Ethiopia itself.

All presidential candidates are in favor of the MoU

"To improve Somaliland's relations with Somalia, it would certainly be necessary to suspend the MoU with Ethiopia," said Dr. Gerrit Kurtz from the SWP.

However, this does not look likely. In Somaliland, practically all presidential candidates are playing this card — above all, President Abdi, the incumbent.

Abdi's opponents, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi (known as "Ciro" or "Irro") from the Somaliland National Party (Waddani) and Faysal Ali Warabe from the Justice and Welfare Party (UCID), have not criticized the agreement.

But they do criticise their rival and incumbent. After Abdi postponed the election by two years for "technical and financial reasons," Abdi violently suppressed the protests against it. He is also accused of authoritarian rule, which has led to divisions between the powerful clans.

Conflict in the east of Somaliland

"One of the most pressing problems is certainly the relationship between the clans, especially the conflict in Las Anod, which is about the secession of an area," said Kurtz, referring to Las Anod in northern and eastern Somaliland. It is the capital of the Sool region, which is claimed by both Somaliland and the autonomous Somali states of Puntland and Khatumo.

There has been repeated violent unrest in Las Anod in recent years. Somaliland lost control of Sool in 2023 after months of clashes with pro-Somalia forces.

"The next president has to end the Las Anod insecurity and war," said Daljir.

Hunger and inflation

In addition to the conflicts, hunger and inflation are among the new government's significant challenges.

"The next president has to deal with the incredibly high unemployment level and inflation," said Daljir.

The impoverished region has around 1.2 million voters, most of whom would prefer to see an economic upturn.

Somaliland lacks direct access to global funding and humanitarian and development aid, all of which need to be channeled through Mogadishu.

In the run-up to the elections, Mohamed Farah Hersi of the Academy for Peace and Development in Somaliland spoke of "navigating through uncertainty." 

If Waddani wins, it can be assumed that bilateral negotiations with Somalia could at least be resumed.

He considers it unlikely that Ethiopia will recognize Somaliland in the immediate future.

The situation is highly complex — and the balance of interests in the Horn of Africa is extremely delicate.

Edited by: Keith Walker