Sudanese protest against the military's 'tactical game'

If Sudan's military ruler General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan had hoped for warm words of approval from protesters in Sudan's capital Khartoum, he was most certainly deeply disappointed.

On Monday, the 61-year-old Burhan surprised his compatriots by announcing the dissolution of the transitional military government and offering support for civilian and democratic rule instead.

Along with that, he outlined his plans to create a new Supreme Military Council.

In turn, the majority of civilian activists, among them the biggest faction, the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), immediately rejected the proposal and called for "continued mobilization" with daily protests and sit-ins in Khartoum.

"I think it's a big lie," Sudanese activist Rania Abdelaziz, told DW. "They are still killing us in the streets, they are still trying to stop the protests and they are still trying to erase the revolutionary spirit," she added.

Since Burhan came to power in a military-led coup in October 2021, thousands of civilians have been taking to the streets, calling for the military to "return to the barracks," and the formation of a democratic government.

Since then, 114 protesters have been killed and more than 5,000 protesters injured, according to the Central Committee of Sudanese Doctors. The last — unarmed — protesters were shot this week.

'Tactical game'

Hamid Khalafallah, Sudan fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, sincerely doubts General Burhan is planning to retreat.

"The military is not genuine about withdrawing from the political process. They are playing a tactical game that allows civilians to join the governmental talks without the military, while they actually plan to establish a government that they will be able to control through the Supreme Military Council," he told DW.

This view is echoed by the fact that Burhan already outlined his plans to set up a "Supreme Military Council," in collaboration with paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under the lead of Burhan's current deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (also known as Hemeti).

According to Burhan's plans, the new council will be tasked with nothing less than, "protecting the country."

"The planned Supreme Military Council will have mandates that control the executive government in terms of foreign relations, they will hold control over the Bank of Sudan, as well as over the economy and the military," analyst Khalafallah told DW.

In short, he believes, "they want to maintain and preserve all their interests while sitting up in a higher council and not being directly involved in the executive work and in the executive government."

Collapsing economy

Meanwhile, the situation for the country's 45 million people has become very dire. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP), some 18 million Sudanese faced acute hunger in September 2021 — they now estimate that number could nearly double by September 2022.

Furthermore, the instable political situation that followed the coup, as well as the shortfall of wheat imports as a consequence of the war in Ukraine, inflation, international sanctions and a halt to international funding by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of $2 billion (€1.95 billion) in aid have exacerbated the situation on the ground.

"The military have simply realized that they cannot continue going ahead with the coup," Hamid Khalafallah said, adding, "they have failed in all aspects, in terms of establishing a government, gaining whatever sort of legitimacy or getting the country to function."

Drafting a constitution

In the meantime, the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) announced at a July 5 news conference that they are working on a constitutional declaration to be approved by all of Sudan's civilian factions. The paper will outline the key points of the transitional period until a democratic government is in place.

So far, however, two drafts are up for discussion.

Ammar Hammoda, a spokesperson for the FFC, told news outlet Al Jazeera that they still needed to reach an agreement about the charters. "As we get into the details we will find obstacles here and there, but the FFC is not the only main player any more. We must unite with the resistance committees and other civilian groups," Hammoda said.

This observation is confirmed by Christine Roehrs, Resident Representative at the Friedrich Ebert Foundation's Sudan Office. "The civilian pro-democracy groups are almost as deeply fragmented as they were before the coup," she told DW.

In turn, she said she wouldn't rule out that the military is actually hoping, "to be able to point the finger in a few months and say 'dear Sudanese, we gave the civilians every chance and they blew it.'"

On the other hand, Roehrs also observed that, "the renewed crackdown on civilian protests and Burhan's speech have refreshed the street protest movement that had been tiring a bit over the past few months, and there are signs from some of the civilian alliances that they want to make another push toward unification."

Activist Rania Abdelaziz, for one, has no doubt that Sudan will ultimately return to civilian rule.

"We know exactly who our enemies are," she says, "and the fight continues. We are still taking to the streets, we are still demanding our right to build a country that can aspire and accommodate our dreams and diversity."

Edited by: Jon Shelton