Syria's dictator caught between Iran and Israel

Last weekend, more than 100 Israeli fighter jets bombed targets in Iran. But the first wave of Israeli pilots had a different destination: Their goal was to disable air defense and radar systems in Syria that might be used to warn Iran about air attacks.  

The rest of the Israeli jets then carried out the attack on Iranian targets in two more waves, passing through Syria and Iraq. The latter complained to the United Nations that Israel had violated Iraqi airspace to carry out bombing raids.

Other nearby nations, including Jordan and Saudi Arabia, were quick to tell the world that the Israeli planes had definitely not passed over their territory. Arab nations have been under pressure not to be seen as helping Israel. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia fear getting dragged into the conflict and previously tried to reassure Iran that they would have nothing to do with any military action by Israel.

In fact, after this weekend's events, it could well be Syria's government, headed by dictator Bashar Assad, that is under the most pressure.

The next days "may be the most complicated for the Assad regime," said Eva Koulouriotis, an independent Middle East expert based in London. "[Syria] stands between ... an Iranian ally who finds itself forced to use all its strategic cards to protect its national security and regional interests, and an Israeli government that wants to redraw the lines of influence in the Middle East, especially Iranian influence."

Historical Iran alliance

Syria, under the authoritarian Assad family, has been Iran's closest Arab ally since the 1980s, when Bashar Assad's now-deceased father, Hafez, sided with Iran during the eight-year Iran-Iraq war. Other Arab nations sided with Iraq.

Syria also helped Iran's military support Hezbollah when it was first formed, after Israel invaded Lebanon in the 1980s. And over the years, Syria has become a conduit for weapons transfers and other facilities for Iran and allied groups such as Hezbollah.

More recently Hezbollah was partially responsible for helping keep the current Assad regime in power, as it fought revolutionaries in the country's long-running civil war.

Despite those alliances, Syria's regime has been comparatively quiet as Israel has assassinated Hezbollah leadership, launched aerial attacks on what it says are Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and, most recently, invaded southern Lebanon to fight Hezbollah on the ground.

When Israel invaded Lebanon in 2006, Assad was much more outspoken. As a result, experts have described Assad as "surprisingly," and "mysteriously" quiet.

Israel also regularly bombs what it claims are Hezbollah-related targets inside Syria. Most recently, Israel has targeted Syrian-Lebanese border crossings and Syrian infrastructure like bridges and highways because, Israel argues, these are being used to resupply Hezbollah in Lebanon. 

'It's about self-preservation'

Syria has historically cultivated a kind of balance with Israel, with which it shares a border. Even as the Assad family has allied with Iran, Syria's governments have tried to stay out of trouble with Israel by keeping the Golan front — Syrian territory occupied by Israel — quiet.

Assad also knows that getting heavily involved in the conflict now "would prompt Israeli action that could decisively weaken the military's ability to protect Damascus' grip on power," the Soufan Center, a US security think tank, wrote earlier this year.

Syria's 13-year civil war is in stasis, with different parts of the country controlled by different armed groups and their allies. And if Assad's regime is weakened, that gives anti-government forces an opportunity to fight again.  

"So I think, first and foremost, it's about self-preservation," Haid Haid, a consulting fellow with the Middle East and North Africa program at the British think tank Chatham House, told DW. 

Assad has also been indirectly told by Israel not to get involved, Haid said. "It's difficult to say with certainty what's happening behind closed doors but Israel, from the beginning, has made it clear, through public as well as private messaging, that any involvement will come with a heavy price," Haid noted.

Iran has made it clear to Assad that the route to resupply Hezbollah must remain open, Haid added. "It's safe to say the Iranians have been trying to get more out of Assad," Haid said. "But he's been quite consistent in pushing back and there are differing reports about what sort of tension that is causing."

Koulouriotis believes that to satisfy Israel Assad has prevented pro-Hezbollah demonstrations and withdrawn Syrian troops from near the Golan, asking Russia to replace them with Russian troops. To satisfy the Iranians, he has sent Syrian soldiers to Aleppo and Idlib so that Hezbollah fighters previously stationed there could move on to Lebanon and also offered them weapons, she noted.

Syria's next steps

Until now, Iran has not asked Assad to allow it to fight Israel via Golan. "Tehran won't make that dangerous decision unless it faces a threat to its national security, such as targeting its nuclear program," Koulouriotis said. But, should it come to that, Assad would have no choice but to do as Iran tells him, she added.

Iran has not hidden the fact that one its objectives in Syria is to create forces that could be used against Israel if needed, Haid said. "So, from that perspective, I think it's safe to say that, if Assad can't keep supply lines open, this this could be one of Iran's requests," he said. "They may say: 'Look, if you don't want to get involved directly, then allow us to carry out attacks from Syria.' After all, Assad could stay out of it himself but claim ignorance later."

Although Syria has been trying to move closer to Arab nations that previously shunned it during the civil war, neither Haid nor Koulouriotis believes that Syria will give up its alliance with Iran in favor of better relations with the Gulf states. Assad is more likely to try to maintain a balance between Israel and Iran the same way that his father did before him. 

"I don't see that [Assad] would sacrifice these relations unless he personally and his regime are in existential danger," Koulouriotis concluded.

Ordinary Syrians continue to pay the highest price for Assad's behavior, Haid said. "Because supply lines and the movement of goods from Lebanon have been suspended, and a wave of displaced people are putting pressure on resources, prices in Syria are rising for everyone," Haid added. "Even without direct regime involvement in the military escalation in the region, ordinary Syrians are paying for this." 

Edited by: M. Gagnon