Thailand: What lies ahead for the new government?

Thai lawmakers voted in Srettha Thavisin of the populist Pheu Thai party as Thailand's prime minister on Tuesday, ending months of post-election uncertainty after the winning party, Move Forward, was blocked in parliament from nominating its candidate.

Political observers said former property tycoon Srettha's path to the prime minister's office was set once Pheu Thai abandoned Move Forward to ally itself with their former military-aligned opponents. This made it easier for military-aligned conservative senators to vote for Srettha.

Some of the coalition parties are linked to Prayuth Chan-ocha and Prawit Wongsuwan, both retired generals and outgoing prime minister and deputy minister, respectively.

"They struck a deal and things went accordingly," Puangthong Pawakapan, an associate professor of political science at Thailand's Chulalongkorn University, told DW.

Thailand's new government strange bedfellows

The May 14 election saw Thai voters demanding change after nearly a decade of military rule.

Move Forward had campaigned on bringing radical reforms to Thailand's power structure, including dismantling monopolies, reforming the military and amending the law against insulting the monarchy.

But after the progressive party was blocked from appointing its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, Pheu Thai took on the mantle to form a new government.

Despite being the largest single party in parliament, Move Forward has said it will work as an opposition party. Move Forward Secretary-General Chaithawat Tulathon told reporters last week that the proposed coalition government "distorts the will of the people in the elections."

As parliament voted Tuesday, Pheu Thai founder and divisive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra returned to Thailand after 15 years in self-imposed exile. Analysts have said his return is linked to Pheu Thai's coalition with Thaksin's political opponents in the military.

"Pheu Thai's coalition partners will easily have things go their way... in return, Thaksin gets to come home," said Puangthong.

The post-election wrangling is the latest turn in a power struggle between Pheu Thai — which, together with its predecessor parties linked to Thaksin, has won five elections in the past 20 years — and Thailand's political establishment, a nexus of the monarchy, military and big business.

Many Thais were disappointed when Pheu Thai broke the alliance with Move Forward and formed a new coalition with parties linked to Prayuth, who was instrumental in orchestrating a coup ousting the last Pheu Thai government led by Thaksin's sister, Yingluck, in 2014.

Ahead of the election, the two parties had both refused to team up with coup leaders.

"We are living in reality. Many people are waiting for the government and for the policies of the party, which cannot be implemented without a government led by Pheu Thai," Srettha told the public after his party's decision.

After the 2014 coup, Thailand's constitution was rewritten to make it nearly impossible for parties not backed by the military and conservative elites to form a government.

Move Forward's surprise victory was a major blow to the military-royalist conservatives, and in the end, the threat posed by the progressive party's huge popularity outweighed the establishment's rivalry with the Shinawatra family.

"Elections [in Thailand] have long been used by the authoritarian regime as a facade. The only difference is that people are no longer willing to put up with a hollow democracy," said Puangthong.

Srettha a political newcomer

An outsider with no prior experience in government, Srettha was thrust into the political spotlight when Pheu Thai named him one of its prime ministerial candidates, alongside Thaksin's youngest daughter, Paetongtarn.

Like Thaksin, the 60-year-old Srettha has a proven track record in business. Before his political debut, Srettha was president of one of Thailand's biggest real estate developers.

Born in Bangkok and educated in the United States, Srettha holds a bachelor's degree in economics from the University of Massachusetts and a master's in finance from Claremont Graduate University in California.

The political newcomer is popular within the business community. In a recent survey ahead of the bicameral vote, two-thirds of 100 CEOs in Thailand said they wanted him at the helm.

Based on his background, Pheu Thai has championed Srettha's business prowess to lead Thailand's economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, critics doubt that his track record as a successful businessman will help much.

"His hands will be tied by factors that won't allow him to push for policies in the way he wants," according to Punchada Sirivunnabood, an associate politics professor at Thailand's Mahidol University.

What lies ahead for Thailand?

Srettha will face immense challenges: Cobbling together an alliance with a diverse range of interests and keeping the establishment that helped put him in office on his side.

"Srettha will govern Thailand in a way that will keep the coalition partners happy, from giving them the ministerial posts they are after to giving a green light to budgets for large-scale projects they want," said Puangthong.

Paul Chambers, a political analyst and lecturer at Thailand's Naresuan University, said Srettha "will allow the pro-military parties of Prawit and Prayuth to do what they want."

While Pheu Thai's policies to alleviate poverty were successful in the past, some have already cast doubt over their populist promises this time around.

As Pheu Thai will have to compromise to keep the coalition afloat, "the new government will be ineffective and the party's push to stimulate the economy will not yield the desired results," said Puangthong.

Observers expect Pheu Thai's honeymoon period with the military to come to an end sooner rather than later. "Srettha's government will not last the full four-year term," Punchada told DW.

Analyst Chambers also warned that "as soon as anything goes wrong with Srettha for the conservative forces," the growing allegations in the lead-up to the vote that he has been involved in tax evasion could be used to "force Srettha out of office."

Edited by: Wesley Rahn