Thaksin Shinawatra set to return to Thailand — what's next?

Billionaire businessman Thaksin Shinawatra, who became Thailand's prime minister in 2001 and was ousted in a 2006 military coup, is due to return to the country this month.

Thaksin found himself fending off multiple criminal cases in the aftermath of the coup, including charges of corruption and tax evasion. He fled Thailand in 2008 to avoid imprisonment.

But his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra recently confirmed the 74-year-old politician would end his 15-year-exile and return to Thailand on August 10.

The news comes as Thailand's Pheu Thai Party, which Thaksin founded, is seeking to break a political deadlock and form a new government following the general elections in May.

Thaksin's party steps in after Move Forward rejected

The election saw progressive forces, including Pheu Thai, place far ahead of more traditional and junta-friendly parties. The Move Forward Party gathered the most votes at the polls and formed a wide coalition, but its leader Pita Limjaroenrat has not been able to secure enough support for his bid as prime minister in the country's parliament. In addition to 500 elected lawmakers, the assembly also includes a 250-member military-appointed Senate.

The lack of support from the Senate largely stems from Move Forward Party's pledge to amend Thailand's Article 112, or lese majeste law, which criminalizes criticism of the Thai monarchy.

Now it is Pheu Thai that is attempting to form the government. But the party's discussions with pro-royalist parties have displeased the progressives, and conservatives are refusing to join any alliance that includes the Move Forward Party. Experts warn that Thaksin's return is likely to make the crisis even worse.

Bad news for Pheu Thai?

Thaksin's return to the political arena is a "lose-lose" move for his party's credibility, according to Mark S. Cogan,  associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Kansai Gaidai University.

"His return complicates coalition building and muddies the water on consistent messaging. Pheu Thai has been very hesitant to break its partnership with Move Forward and the prospect of his return has sent signals through the media and among analysts that he is only interested in accumulating enough political power to avoid the harsh consequences that could await him."

Pheu Thai has historically pushed for populist policies and reform, as well as against military rule. Those policies made the former prime minister very unpopular with monarchy supporters and members of the rich and upper class. Voters could see his return as a sign that Thaksin is ready to make peace with those groups.

"The narrative of a power-hungry Thaksin is terrible news for Pheu Thai as it also sends a morally-bankrupt message to longtime supporters that his values and principles can be corrupted by making a deal with the devil, the same people that not only drove him from office, but forced him into exile," Cogan said.

Political science professor Siripan Nogsuanat from Chulalongkorn University also believes Thaksin "won't do any good" to Thailand's political future.

"He's only to serve his desire and I think he has the right to be back. The impact, his coming back for me signifies a reflection of a compromise between Thaksin and former advisories based on new perceptions towards the Move Forward [Party] as the bigger threat to the Thai traditional elite," the professor said.

"The signal of him returning is an attempt to show the Senate he is now with the Conservative force" and could curb the rising popularity of the Move Forward party, Siripan added.

Thaksin might take a mentor role, supporter says

Thaksin remains a divisive public figure, though he has wide-reaching familial ties and can still count on many of his former voters. For Peemai Sirikul, a Thai citizen who works in the OEM industry, the politician "did nothing wrong" when it came to policies and was facing political persecution under the military government.

"I've been waiting for this occasion for years," she said, commenting on his return. "What he'd done for our country is more than words."

Peemai also trusts Thaksin will "reengineer" the Pheu Thai's attempt to lead the government. 

"He's been the idol, role model and symbol of the party's members. His role in Pheu Thai party will not be the leader anymore, but will be like a consultant, a professor to the members because of his age," she said.

Legal troubles still loom large

The next stage in Thailand's political saga is expected this week. The Constitutional Court is set to decide on August 3 a petition challenging the Parliament’s blocking of a July 19 vote against Pita Limjaroenrat. Just a day later, lawmakers are also set to vote for the prime minister once again, and Pheu Thai's Srettha Thavisin is likely to be nominated as prime minister.

It remains to be seen how the outcome of the legal challenge and the vote would influence Thaksin's plans. It is unlikely that he will return to the country without strong guarantees from the country's elite as he could still face a 10-year prison sentence. Last month, Thailand's national police chief Damrongsak Kittiprapas said Thaksin would be detained upon arrival and his case would be referred to Thailand's Supreme Court.

Edited by: Kate Martyr