The five big questions ahead of the return of the Bundesliga
January 10, 2018
Which Borussia Dortmund will we see?
The rapid rise and fall of Peter Bosz was the story of the season's first half but two wins from two from surprise replacement Peter Stöger looks to have stabilized the German giants. Look a little deeper though and problems remain. The opening of the transfer window has come with the usual glut of speculation around the future of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. Two Chinese clubs are said to be in the running for the striker, amid reports that senior Dortmund players were unhappy with his father and brother staying at the team hotel recently and following his club suspension in November.
There must also be questions about whether Stöger will be able to fix the defensive issues that have undermined Dortmund for several years. The Austrian coach was renowned for his organizational skills at previous employers Cologne but a combination of injuries and the extra strain that comes with having to play European fixtures made a significant dent in that. With or without Aubameyang, Dortmund seem to have enough going forward, but has the winter break been enough time for the new man to address the defensive and mental fragility?
Who can break free from the chasing pack?
This time last year, Bayern Munich had just beaten RB Leipzig to knock the newcomers off the top of the table ahead of the winter break, while unfanced Hoffenheim remained unbeaten. In 2018, there's no such drama. Despite a poor start, the Bavarians have opened up an 11-point gap on a chasing pack in which not a single team has won as much as 50 percent of their games.
Second placed Schalke are separated from Eintracht Frankfurt, in eighth, by just four points, leaving the European spots wide open. Last season, the points tally required for automatic Champions League qualification was set at 64 points, the seasons before that it was 60, 66, 64 and 65. At the current pace, 56 points would be good enough for third. Can Leipzig rediscover their zest? Is Schalke's latest new dawn going to last? Will the familiar faces come through or is there room for a surprise package? Whatever the answers, a strong run from any side looks likely to be enough.
Can Nagelsmann make his case for Bayern job?
Before Jupp Heynckes was tempted out of the wilderness of retirement for one last shot at the Bayern Munich gig, Julian Nagelsmann was thought to be among the front-runners for the Bundesliga's biggest job. After saving Hoffenheim from relegation in 2015-16 before that long unbeaten run carried them to fourth last term, the 30-year-old's stock could hardly have been higher. A Champions League playoff exit to Liverpool was disappointing but ultimately to be expected, given the resource gap. But Hoffenheim's underperformance in the Europa League and wildly inconsistent Bundesliga form has tarnished his reputation a touch.
A tough start to 2018 includes a visit to the Allianz Arena at the end of January in a match sure to be billed as an audition for the young coach. With the imminent departure of Mark Uth following those of Sebastian Rudy and Niklas Süle, the limitations of the Sinsheim-based club must have become clear to Nagelsmann. The next 17 games may decide whether he'll soon be able to make his own escape.
Is it finally Hamburg's time to drop?
The day's when HSV were among Germany's strongest footballing forces are long gone, with the club increasingly defined by their ability to keep the famous clock ticking by remaining the only original member of the Bundesliga never to have been relegated.
Two points from their last four games leave them in 17th place, while their back-to-back wins at the beginning of the season have faded into a distant memory. In fact, since the opening two games they've picked up just nine points from a possible 45. Predictably, Markus Gisdol, lauded as a savior not so long ago, is likely to come under some pressure, although a trip to Augsburg and hosting basement club Cologne offers decent chances of relief. But, after that, Leipzig, Dortmund and Leverkusen await. So is that clock finally about to stop?
Will Cologne be the league's worst ever side?
It took 17 games, two coaches and two general managers but Cologne finally picked up a Bundesliga win over Wolfsburg just before the winter break. While it may have got the monkey off their back in the short term, the situation is still bleak, with the Billy Goats still nine points from safety. Relegation back to the division that they left in 2014 seems a near certainty but those fond of a little schadenfreude will be keeping a watchful eye on the Bundesliga's cellar dwellers.
While they just moved past Tasmania Berlin's 1965-66 mark of four points (adjusted for three points for a win) for a half-season with that victory, Cologne still need a further four points to avoid setting a new record for the worst single season in the history of the Bundesliga. Their losing percentage record of 76, is dangerously close to Tasmania's 82, although the now defunct capital city club's goal-difference record of -93 looks pretty safe.