With Trump's US election win, is Europe now on its own?

Mark Rutte's message to the US president-elect was pretty straightforward. The new NATO secretary general was among the first leaders to congratulate Donald Trump on his victory. "I look forward to working with him again to advance peace through strength through NATO," Rutte said in a statement. 

He then quickly stressed that "through NATO, the US has 31 friends and allies who help to advance US interests, multiply American power, and keep Americans safe." This is an easy-to-read hint at what Washington gains by staying committed to the alliance and its mutual defense clause. 

Will Trump listen to Trump whisperers?

Rutte is considered a "Trump whisperer" — somebody who knows how to deal with him, how to flatter his ego.

As Dutch Prime Minister, Rutte was able to prevent Trump from derailing a NATO summit in the summer of 2018 by praising the US president's role in pushing allies towards spending more on defense.

Currently, two-thirds of NATO members spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense, and defense spending and production are on an onward trajectory across the alliance, Rutte said in his statement.

A transactional approach to NATO 

But it is unclear whether that is sufficient for Donald Trump and how successful a charm offensive could be this time. Trump has made it clear again and again that he doesn't believe in the value of the alliance per se. His approach to NATO is rather transactional.

On the campaign trail, Trump indicated he would remain in the alliance as long as European countries "play fair" and stop taking "advantage" of US defense spending.

It seems unlikely that Trump will pull the US out of NATO altogether, but there are many ways to hurt the alliance. Trump could for instance remove the US from the military command – that is what France did in 1966.

A Trump administration "could make life in NATO quite difficult since it's an organization that does everything by consensus," Ian Lesser, distinguished fellow with the German Marshall Fund, a transatlantic think tank, told DW. 

Will Trump shake up NATO?

In Lesser's view, if NATO's largest contributing partner "doesn't agree or has eccentric views, this is going to make the management of alliance relations very, very difficult." This is a big problem particularly now with a war raging in Europe.

Trump has promised to end Russia's war on Ukraine within twenty-four hours. Many in Europe fear he could strike a deal with the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, at the expense of Ukraine or at least that he could scale back America's support for Kyiv.

Trump could reduce arms deliveries to Ukraine or "instruct the American military and intelligence services to stop intelligence sharing with Ukraine," Jacob Kirkegaard, senior fellow with the Bruegel think tank, told DW. This could have far-reaching implications for Ukraine's war effort.

Could Europeans fill the gaps?

US aid for Ukraine has been crucial, Steven Blockmans told DW. The senior fellow with the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels indicated that Europeans could not replace this support.

"Despite all the talk in Europe about creating more strategic autonomy," Blockmans said, "in fact, the reliance on the US has grown — both in terms of security and trade." A potential trade war with the US is another concern for the Europeans, given that Trump on the campaign trail threatened to impose tariffs on all foreign-imported goods. 

Calls for more European sovereignty  

But could the outcome of the US election accelerate the drive for more EU autonomy and unity? French President Emanuel Macron certainly seems to believe so. In the aftermath of the US election, Macron said he and the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, wanted to "work towards a more united, stronger, more sovereign Europe in this new context."

Many in the European Parliament seem to agree. "We have to really invest in Europe's competitiveness, industrial and technological sovereignty," Sven Mikser, former Estonian foreign minister and now European lawmaker, told DW. "We really have to be serious." 

Populist leaders in Europe emboldened by Trump

Experts, however, remain skeptical. "It's one thing to talk about strategic autonomy in an aspirational sense," Ian Lesser at the German Marshall Fund said. "It's quite another to operationalize. It involves rebuilding European defense capability in a way that could take many years."

The new discussion about more European sovereignty happens as the continent grapples with economic volatility, declining competitiveness, and, on top of that, the rise of right-wing nationalism.

Not surprisingly, populist nationalist parties on the continent, reinvigorated by recent European and national elections, do not see a need for more autonomy. 

Trump's victory might not have shocked Europe. But, as Steven Blockmans pointed out, that does not mean "it will not be a chaotic period."

Edited by: Andreas Illmer