Trump's election victory is a nightmare for Germany

A nightmare has taken hold of the German government: Donald Trump. It had clung to the hope that Kamala Harris would follow in the footsteps of Joe Biden and continue the tradition of transatlanticism and multilateralism. That is, until Trump won the election surprisingly early and decisively.

Now the German government is ill-prepared, says Henning Hoff from the German Council on Foreign Relations: "It was a mistake to rely so completely on the Democrats," Hoff told DW. "The special relationship that the chancellor cultivated with President Biden was perhaps a little too lopsided. The fact that there haven't been any contacts at all in the Trump camp will now come back to haunt him."

Memories of Trump's first presidency, from 2017 to 2021, are still very clear in Berlin. At the time, Trump cast doubt on NATO and threatened to withdraw US troops from Germany. He criticized Germany and other NATO countries for benefiting from US military protection without contributing enough to their own defense.

Henning Hoff believes that it is now important for the German government to "make up for its failures." "A much stronger signal is needed to show that the Europeans, especially the Germans, are truly prepared to shoulder a greater burden of their defense. If we continue to fumble along and argue — we have the dedicated funds (for the Bundeswehr), so the defense budget need only increase minimally — then we won't be able to impress anyone in Washington, not now and certainly not under Trump."

Dictated peace for Ukraine?

On an international level, the upcoming change from Joe Biden to Donald Trump will likely have no greater impact than on the war in Ukraine. This is also the crucial question for the German government: What will become of support for Ukraine? After all, the US is by far Ukraine's most important arms supplier and financial backer, followed by Germany.

While both President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have promised support for Ukraine "for as long as necessary," Donald Trump wants to bring about a quick end to the war. At least that's what he says. This would presumably mean that Ukraine would be forced to give up large parts of the territory occupied by Russia.

But what US Ukraine policy would really look like under Trump, "we don't know," said security expert Nico Lange even before the election. "We can't say that if Donald Trump wins, he'll sell out Ukraine. The thing about Donald Trump is that he's not really predictable."

If Trump tries to reach an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the heads of Ukraine and its supporters to end thewar at Ukraine's expense, Henning Hoff sees the danger that Berlin will be tempted to use this as an excuse and say, "We would like to do more, but, well, the Americans!"

Tariffs expected for German exports to the US

Germany is one of the US's most important trading partners. This means that economic policy adopted by Washington has a direct impact on Germany. During the campaign, Trump announced he would impose a 60% tariff on US imports from China and a 20% tariff on imports from the rest of the world. This would make German products significantly more expensive in the US. The automotive and pharmaceutical industries would be particularly hard hit. "It would be a huge millstone around the neck of the German export industry," warns Henning Hoff.

As a result, many German manufacturing companies are worried. In a survey conducted by the ifo Institute for Economic Research two weeks before the election, 44% of the companies surveyed feared that a Trump presidency would have adverse effects. Only 5% anticipated positive consequences, while 51% did not expect any difference. An earlier ifo study predicted that German exports to the US would fall by almost 15% as a result of Trump's planned tariffs alone.

Andreas Baur from the ifo Institute fears that tariff barriers could also have indirect consequences for Germany: "You can of course assume that there will be a response from trading partners, from China," Baur told DW, "and that is perhaps the biggest concern, that this could escalate into a trade war at the global level."

However, the German export industry has not had an easy time under the current Biden-Harris administration either. During the campaign, both Trump and Harris have "focused on strengthening domestic industry and want to bring manufacturing jobs back into the country," explained Siegfried Russwurm, president of the Federation of German Industries.

Andreas Baur confirmed this. He pointed out that there have been continuities from Trump to Biden, especially on trade policy toward China. Biden has maintained all of the high tariffs that Trump imposed on Chinese imports, and has even imposed some of his own. "The big difference between Trump and Harris is their approach to US allies. Trump's rhetoric is clear: it's about the US against the rest. With a future Harris administration, at least my impression is that they realize the United States needs allies."

For Trump, Germany is a bad example

One of the German government's most important projects is climate action. Germany wants to become carbon neutral and to restructure its energy supply and its entire economy to be carbon neutral. The Biden-Harris administration has been a strong ally in this regard. Trump's election victory, on the other hand, is likely to result in the US turning away from climate action. This will make it even more difficult for the German government to push through internationally binding rules to limit CO2 emissions.

Donald Trump has repeatedly held up Germany as a bad example. Whether it was Chancellor Angela Merkel's policy of welcoming refugees in 2016, or now Germany's energy policy of relying on renewable energies instead of coal, oil, and nuclear power, Trump sees Germany as an example of how NOT to do things.

Now the German government will have to contend with Trump as president once again, on issues such as security, trade, and climate. "I am already worried," says Henning Hoff, "that some of the things we know from Trump's first presidential term will reappear: pressure on Germany, antipathy towards Germany, these have not gone away."

Just how Trump's first transatlantic meetings will play out after his inauguration in January remains to be seen. During the 2016 election campaign, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, a former German foreign minister and current president,  once used the somewhat undiplomatic term "hate preacher" to describe Trump. So far, Steinmeier has been spared a state visit to Germany by Trump.

This article was originally written in German.