Change of course

Following the mining disaster in Soma, Turkish authorities have banned all demonstrations in the city. At the same time, the government is organizing financial aid for the affected families.

It is assumed that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to minimize the disaster's negative impact on his anticipated presidential candidacy. Protests and humiliated people are not the images that would help his campaign.

With the salvage work at the mine drawing to a close, the Turkish government hopes to come across as driven and strong-willed. According to media reports, Erdogan is coordinating financial help for the families of the 301 workers who died in the accident.

His adviser, Ibrahim Kalin, meanwhile, has called for stricter health and safety provisions for the mining industry, wrote one newspaper.

But just a few days ago, Erdogan was conveying a different message. At his public appearance in Soma on Wednesday last week, he portrayed accidents as an inevitable aspect of mining. He made no mention of the necessity to learn from the tragedy by implementing better regulations.

Test for Erdogan

However, the Turkish opposition believes that behind the latest statements lies the intent to shift the blame onto Soma Holding, the company that manages the mine, or its individual employees. Akif Hamzacebi, parliamentary group deputy chair of the Republican People's Party (CHP), has accused the government of wanting to make one of the Soma Holding managers, who died in the disaster, a scapegoat.

Erdogan's party has allegedly requested for a parliamentary investigation committee to be set up for this purpose. The CHP also plans to have the mining accident investigated, though with a focus on the failings of the government and authorities in preventing it.

In the background of all these political maneuvers is the looming presidential election, scheduled for August 10. Surveys indicate that Erdogan has a good chance of snaring the top post in the country. The question now is if the Soma disaster will have any significant impact on his political career.

Two upcoming local by-elections could provide an answer to this question. On June 1, the residents of Yalova, a municipality near Istanbul, as well as those of Agri, eastern Turkey, will head to the polls to vote for new mayors, with the election results from March 30 having been annulled.

If Erdogan's party, AKP, suffers significant losses in these elections, it could indicate a general, rising dissatisfaction with the leadership.

Negative consequences possible

Government-critical columnist Emre Uslu believes that this is not an improbable scenario. "Negative effects are possible," he recently wrote on Twitter. This could especially be the case if it turned out that some of the negligence accusations against the government are true.

Labor Minister Faruk Celik has promised to look into some of the accusations, which include low pay and no access to trade unions for the miners, as well as unsafe working conditions.

Miners have also told Celik repeatedly that some subcontractors are allowed to pay badly, ban its workers from joining the union and generally don't always obey the law.

But up until now the Turkish government has been rejecting all blame for the incident. Even Erdogan's advisor, Yusuf Yerkel, who deliberately kicked a demonstrator in Soma, is still in office.

According to columnist Murat Yetkin from Turkey's liberal "Radikal" newspaper, the refusal to accept responsibility even for the smallest errors is a conscious strategy on the part of the government. It is apparently afraid of "losing everything at the first false step."