Erdogan and the Caucasus

The main goal for Erdogan in his talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is to reassure Baku that Turkey's current policy of rapprochement with Armenia will not harm relations between the two allies.

Turkey has always supported Azerbaijan in the conflict over Nagorny-Karabakh, a majority Armenian area of Azerbaijan that's under Armenian control. At the same time, Turkey hopes improving its relations with Armenia will bolster its chances for EU membership.

Experts say Ankara is stuck between a rock and a hard place.

"Turkey is pursuing a policy of unproblematic relations with its neighbors and would like to open its border with Armenia, something supported by the Armenian public," Uwe Hallbach - a Caucasus expert for the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin - told DW-WORLD.DE. "But the Nagorny-Karabakh conflict is a major sticking point."

Jan Senkyr, the representative of Germany's Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Turkey, concurs.

"Aside from the policy of getting on with its neighbors, Turkey would like more influence in the Caucasus, would benefit economically from opening the border with Armenia and would better its image with both the US and the EU," Senkyr told DW-WORLD.DE.

Solidarity and animosity

Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 after Armenian troops entered Nagorny-Karabakh. That act was an expression of solidarity with Azerbaijan, with which Turkey shares a number of linguistic, cultural and historical commonalities.

And Baku expects Turkey's continuing unconditional support on the issue.

"Azerbaijan thinks it's Turkey's duty to keep the border closed until the Nagorny-Karabakh conflict is resolved," Hallbach said. "That's why Baku views the thaw between Turkey and Armenia with such mistrust. It would be a great boon if that issue were uncoupled from other questions."

For Armenians, Hallbach said, the importance of Nagorny-Karabakh outweighs even the resentment about what many consider the genocide of Armenians by Turkey in World War I. However, most Armenians would likely support a de-escalation of the Nagorny-Karabakh conflict, if Azerbaijan were willing to make concessions of its own.

Baku, which views the region as an unequivocal part of its sovereign territory, has not thus far proven amenable to compromise.

"Turkey has to walk a diplomatic tight-rope," Senkyr said. "That's why Erdogan has gone to Baku - to smooth things over."

Pipeline problem

The situation is further complicated by the fact that Azerbaijan is one of the countries expected to supply natural gas to the planned Nabucco Pipeline, which would connect Turkey and Western Europe.

The project is one of Turkey's main economic focuses for the future, but Baku has intimated that Azerbaijan could create problems, if it feels betrayed by Turkish attempts to reconcile with Armenia.

Experts think such intimations are probably a bluff.

"Azerbaijan has threatened to revise its pipeline policies, but you have to question whether that is meant seriously," Hallbach said. "Such a move would actually be directly contrary to their interests."

"Nothing has happened yet," Senkyr concurred. "It's probably an expression of disappointment, and the future will depend on how Turkey acts in its negotiations with Armenia."

Does Moscow hold the key?

On Saturday, Erdogan is to call on Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. The situation in the Caucasus, where Russia has enormous influence, will likely be one of the topics for the two leaders.

Russia, say regional specialists, could be the ideal mediator to break the many conflicts of interest dividing Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia at the moment.

"Especially compared with the situation surrounding Georgia, Russia is relatively neutral concerning Nagorny-Karabakh," Hallbach told DW-WORLD.DE. "It could indeed put pressure on Armenia to withdraw its troops."

Senkyr agrees that Russia is interested in bringing stability to the volatile Caucasus but said other interests could come into play.

"From an energy standpoint, Russia has no desire to see Azerbaijan so closely tied to the EU," Senkyr said.

No one expects a breakthrough to come any time in the immediate future. Erdogan would likely be satisfied if his two-day visit to Azerbaijan and upcoming trip to Russia bring some small steps toward a lasting solution.

Author: Jefferson Chase

Editor: Michael Knigge