Ukraine braces for funding battle with Hungary and US

Volodymyr Zelenskyy's trip to the Americas has been marked by difficult conversations. On Sunday, the Ukrainian president witnessed the inauguration of his new Argentinian counterpart, right-wing libertarian Javier Milei. Sat near Zelenskyy at the ceremony was none other than the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orban.

It didn't take long for a 21-second video clip of them talking to start making the rounds on the internet. You can't hear what the pair are saying, but the body language seems clear. Even from a vantage point as far away as Buenos Aires, Ukraine and Hungary's positions remain miles apart.

Both of them separately commented on their exchange later. In an evening video address, Zelenskyy, who is hoping his country can join the European Union, said that he had presented Ukraine's European policy interests to Orban "as openly as possible".

The Hungarian Prime Minister's spokesperson said that Orban had simply informed Zelenskyy that EU members states were "continuously negotiating with each other" regarding Ukraine's possible accession.

Despite what the neutral diplomatic language might suggest, the stakes are high. On Thursday and Friday, EU leaders are gathering in Brussels to discuss plans for a new €50 billion ($54 billion) aid package for Ukraine as well as the opening of formal accession talks. The meeting is set to be tense, however. Hungary has openly threatened to veto them.

Ukraine in a tough spot

At the start of Ukraine's second winter at war, the country finds itself in possibly the most perilous position it has faced since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

In military terms, the last few months have been defined by attrition rather than territorial gains. In Kyiv, soldiers' wives and relatives recently protested (as have soldiers' families in Russia), demanding combatants be granted a longer break from the frontline after 21 months at war.

Zelenskyy is also reckoning with domestic political critics, not least Mayor of Kyiv Vitaly Klitschko.

And as much of the world's attention has shifted from Ukraine to the fighting in Gaza, the promise of further weapons and aid packages, which are probably vital for Ukraine's survival, is also crumbling.

Against this backdrop, Hungary is now actively taking sides against further military aid. Only a month ago, Orban praised Russia's President Vladimir Putin for "good relations".

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, one of Kyiv's staunchest backers, shared his own interpretation of Orban's behavior on Monday in Brussels.

"The only way I can read the Hungarian position, not just on Ukraine but on many other issues, is that they are against Europe and everything Europe stands for," he told reporters.

Orban has the upper hand as summit nears

Markus Kaim, a researcher from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, sees Orban's threats in the run-up to the summit as "very dangerous" given that important EU decisions are always made by unanimous agreement.

"If Orban rejects Ukraine's membership prospects, there is little the others can do. So he is controlling the levers, directly and indirectly," Kaim told DW.

Ukraine is warning of "devastating consequences" in the event of a Hungarian veto. The people of Ukraine would be extremely demotivated if there is no positive decision, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba warned on the sidelines of Monday's meeting with his EU counterparts in Brussels.

At those talks, EU foreign ministers approved a proposal by the European Commission to transfer €900 million to Hungary without preconditions to deal with the energy crisis.

Kaim sees this as an opportunity for concessions to be made. Hungary could also support the next Ukraine aid package at the EU summit at the end of the week.

"They could possibly delay tackling the question of EU accession candidacy for now," he suggested

Support from the US on thin ice

Hungary is also lobbying on a different political stage against assistance payments to Ukraine. According to a report in the British newspaper The Guardian this week, Hungarian diplomats wanted to meet with US Republican Party politicians in Washington this week.

In parallel, Zelenskyy was trying to meet with the head of the Republicans in the House of Congress, Mike Johnson, on Tuesday. Further support for Ukraine depends on Johnson.

After the meeting with Orban, this appointment could be the second uncomfortable debate for Zelenskyy on his diplomatic tour. There are just over 11 months left before the US heads to the polls to select its next president, its House of Representatives and a third of the Senate.

Former president Donald Trump and his supporters in the Republican Party seem to be setting the tone. They are opposed to granting Ukraine massive amounts of aid, as incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden's administration has done.

Biden had already petitioned Congress to release a new tranche in October, but the passage of the budget and approval of a further $61 billion for Ukraine has so far been blocked by the Republicans, who are calling for spending cuts.

'First flare-up' before a possible Trump return

Whether Zelenskyy can bring about a change of heart in Washington ― or whether the Republicans will stick to their hard no to Ukraine support ― remains to be seen.

"Then it would be up to Europe," said Kaim. "It would be the first flare-up of what many people fear after Donald Trump's re-election: The US failing as guarantor of the international security order. And then the burden-sharing between the US and Europe would have to be readjusted."

A definitive "no" from the Republicans in Washington or a veto from Hungary at the EU summit would certainly cause headaches for Ukraine. Germany at least is set to double its military aid to Ukraine from €4 billion to €8 billion in 2024, as German Minister of State for Europe Anna Luehrmann announced Monday.

This article was adapted from the original German.