Ukraine's war refugees feel increasingly at home in Germany

An increasing number of war refugees from Ukraine would like to stay longer in Germany — a key finding of the second survey in the long-term study "Refugees from Ukraine in Germany."

Although it's unclear whether their right to stay will be extended beyond its current limit of March 2024, about half (44%) of the refugees have envisaged staying longer — "at least for another few years or permanently," according to the results. That is five percentage points more compared to the first survey of the study, conducted between August and October 2022.

The majority (71%) do not plan to stay in Germany forever. Of those, 38% want to return to Ukraine after the war ends. A further 30% want to retain close ties with Germany and live there at least from time to time.

The data was gathered by social research institute Infas, the Institute for Applied Social Science based in Bonn. Infas was commissioned to conduct the surveys by Germany's Institute for Employment Research, the Federal Institute for Population Research, the research center of the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees and the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) of the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin. 

Living situation influences wish to stay

For the first randomized survey last year, about 11,000 refugees ages between the ages of 18 and 70 provided information about their living situations in Germany. For the latest round of the survey, conducted between mid-January and early March, researchers followed up with 7,000 of the first respondents so they could compare the results.

In both cases, more than 80% of the respondents were women, including many mothers with underage children. The average age of those surveyed was about 40.

In addition to the ongoing war in Ukraine, family situations were an important factor in their desire to remain in Germany. "It is less likely that refugees whose partners live abroad will want to remain by themselves in Germany forever," said Markus Grabka, senior researcher with SOEP at the German Institute for Economic Research, at the digital presentation of the survey results this week.

Refugees made progress in learning German

The type of living arrangements also play a role in a person's decisions about their future. "People who live in private accommodation have a much longer intention of staying than people in other types of accommodation such as hotels or boarding houses," explained Grabka. Of those surveyed, 79% were living in a private apartment, compared with 74% in the previous survey conducted last year.

The researchers confirmed that refugees had made progress in learning German. Three out of every four Ukrainian refugees had attended or completed one or more German courses, mostly an integration course. "That is an increase of 25% compared with August-October 2022," said Nina Rother of the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees. 

That increase meant the share of refugees without knowledge of German could be halved, from 41% to 18%. "On the other hand, there is also room for improvement. Because the proportion of refugees who have a good or very good level of German has doubled, but at 8% it is still quite low," said Rother.

Language skills key to employment

Competence in language and integration is the deciding factor when it comes to employment opportunities. However, the employment rate had increased only slightly when compared with the first survey: 18% of the 18–64-year-olds were employed this year, compared with 17% in 2022.

Because about two-thirds of those surveyed were attending a German course during the time the second survey was conducted, they were either unavailable to the job market, or had only limited availability. More than two-thirds of those who were unemployed wanted to look for a job either immediately or in the coming year.

"It is especially women who have fled the war with young children who have a very low rate of employment, about 3%," reported Yuliya Kosyakova from the Institute for Employment Research. "As a rule, they are living without their partners in Germany. By contrast, the employment rate among fathers with small children is significantly higher, at 23%, because most of them live with their partners in Germany."

The second survey also includes, for the first time, information about the refugees' household incomes. "At the beginning of 2023, the average net household income for Ukrainian refugees is about €850 ($950) per month," explained Kosyakova. By comparison: according to the German Federal Statistical Office, the average net monthly income of a private household in Germany in 2021 was about €3,800. 

Children and adolescents form a significant share of the refugees: approximately one half of Ukrainian refugee women arrived in Germany with at least one minor child. While almost all school-aged children attend a general or vocational school, according to the study only fewer parents send their younger children to day care centers. 

Children, parents need more support

"Having sufficient day care places for children is important for the large group of Ukrainian refugees in Germany," said Andreas Ette of the Federal Institute for Population Research. "[It helps] parents to be able to attend language courses and take up employment, and for children to learn the language, have structure in their everyday lives and make friends."

Since the Russian war of aggression began on February 24, 2022, more than a million Ukrainians have taken refuge in Germany. It has been a mammoth task to take in and integrate so many people in such a short time. In this respect, the four research institutes see the results of their study as an aid for decision-makers in politics, administration and official authorities.

DIW expert Grabka drew an "encouraging interim conclusion" and said that "social participation has recently made significant progress," but those responsible for the study are aware that the successful integration of the refugees cannot be taken for granted.

Political decision-makers need to provide 'planning and legal certainty'

The experts said politicians should decide quickly on whether to extend the temporary protection of Ukrainian refugees beyond March 2024, or creating other long-term residence prospects.

"Planning and legal certainty, as well as reliable residence prospects, are required for investments in social participation and employment relationships — both for the refugees and for German society," the report said.

This article was originally written in German.

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