Conflicting Results
January 10, 2008
An opinion poll carried on Saturday evening by television channels loyal to the government showed President Mikhail Saakashvili in the lead with 52.5 percent of votes.
"This clearly indicates the elections were successful and the next president of Georgia is Mikhail Saakashvili," campaign manager Davit Bakradze told AFP. "We call on all our opponents to accept the results of this election."
However, in a survey published by a Ukrainian pollster after polling stations closed, Saakashvili only got some 24.4 percent of votes, well behind opposition candidate Levan Gachechiladze with 31 percent, Interfax news agency reported.
Preliminary results are expected by Sunday.
Problematic campaign
Saturday's elections in the former Soviet republic were marred by accusations of vote rigging made against the government.
Gachechiladze told reporters on Friday that a series of violations -- including media coercion and misappropriation of public funds -- plagued the campaign leading to the election, adding that he was considering not recognizing the presidential poll's results.
"If these kinds of things continue, and I am a hundred percent sure that this is continuing, then we can't recognize" the election, he said, adding that he would "continue protests and everything under the constitution" to oppose incumbent President Mikhail Saakashvili.
"We cannot give Saakashvili our country and our population, because we are 100 percent sure that if he proceeds with falsified elections, we will get an authoritarian regime here very soon," Gachechiladze said after meeting with European election observers.
Election observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said in a December report that they had received information indicating some claims of unequal campaign conditions, intimidation and vote buying.
Objectivity in 2nd round of voting
Last weekend, some 30,000 protesters took to the streets to demonstrate their anger over what they called an unfair five-week campaign. Accusing the president of wielding too much authority, Gachechiladze said, if elected, he would give more power to parliament.
David Gamkrelidze of the conservative New Rights party, also threatened on Friday not to recognize the vote and to use "all peaceful methods" to protest the result.
Gamkrelidze told reporters that Saakashvili did not have enough support to overcome the 50-percent threshold, which is necessary for a win in the first round.
"We think the only objective result will be a second round," he said.
If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote on Saturday, a second round of voting must take place on Jan. 19 between the top two finishers. A second round face-off would likely pit Saakashvili against a single candidate from the fragmented opposition.
Denying allegations of fixing the election, Saakashvili said he was confident he would receive the majority of votes on Saturday, but added that he "would also accept any other result."
Pair of pro-West candidates
Both Saakashvili and Gachechiladze are seen as pro-Western politicians who want to move the former Soviet republic away from Moscow, with which Tbilisi has seen relations fall to all-time lows, and toward membership in the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
"Whoever becomes president is going to pursue a Euro-Atlantic path, because there's no other path to follow," Amanda Akcakoca, an analyst at the European Policy Center in Brussels, told Bloomberg news last month.
In addition to the presidential election, two non-binding referendums will be held to consult with voters on potential NATO membership and the date for the next parliamentary elections.
Saakashvili's government pushed economic reforms and sold state assets to increase foreign business in Georgia. In 2007, according to government estimates, Georgia will receive $1.5 billion (1 billion euros) in foreign direct investments compared with $1 billion in 2006. But in November, the International Monetary Fund said unrest in the country had damaged investors' confidence.
Polls commissioned by the seven candidates in Saturday's contest do not present a unified view of expected results, though most analysts believe Saakashvili heads the field.
Not so rosy?
The election is the result of a snap poll called by Saakashvili after clashes in November between police and as many as 70,000 protesters. Saakashvili imposed a 15-day state of emergency to put a stop to the violence and closed down the main opposition television station, Imedi.
He later agreed to the early elections as part of concessions to the opposition, which accuse him of ruling in an autocratic style.
But the unrest and emergency rule tarnished his reputation as one of the most democratic and reformist leaders in the former Soviet Union. Saakashvili came to power in 2003 after the peaceful, pro-Western Rose Revolution.
Shortly after becoming president, Saakashvili engineered a peaceful uprising that overthrew the region's authoritarian ruler, Aslan Abashidze, who fled to Russia in the face of street protests. Saakashvili then cemented his presidential mandate in 2004, claiming 96 percent of the vote.
Hundreds of international observers have arrived in Georgia for the election and diplomats have warned that Georgian efforts at integrating further with the West could be derailed if the vote is not conducted fairly.