Mission Impossible?

The UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) was created to back up the 2005 agreement which ended two decades of civil war between the north and south that killed at least two million people. The expected 2011 referendum on the agreement will determine whether the country's south secedes from the north and who gets control of the disputed oil-rich region of Abyei and its resources.

UNMIS has a broad mandate, ranging from monitoring the North-South peace agreement to promoting the rule of law and coordinating humanitarian aid. The new mandate now hones its focus on next year's independence referendum.

An uneasy peace currently exists between the government in Khartoum in the north and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement in the south but experts believe that the referendum next year could reignite the violence of the past. The new UN mandate will keep the approximately 10,000 troops and military observers in the country until April 30 next year in the bid to protect civilians, relief and development workers and refugees should hostilities resume.

The chances of a new conflict seem to be increasing. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has expressed concern there has been "little concrete progress" made between the government and secessionists in preparing for the referendum while the divide between them widens.

The UN also criticized national elections organized in mid-April in which Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, who first took power in late 1980s, was reelected.

The UN has expressed its concern that al-Bashir, who has been indicted by the International Criminal Court on genocide charges, is behind the irregularities and the lack of preparations and education of voters which have sewn more seeds of distrust among rival parties.

In turn, the Sudanese view of the UN mission continues to be, on the whole, an unfavorable one. The mission has been criticized by some for reacting too late to the humanitarian crisis arising from the civil war and it has remained unpopular with many Sudanese.

Opinion drawn from harsh reality of UN presence

Allan Duncan, a British development consultant who has worked in Sudan for five years, said that the idea of living in a region with a peacekeeping force was very different from the reality; something that has contributed to the Sudanese attitude towards the UN.

"Southern Sudan was the first country I have worked in where there had been a peace-keeping force," he told Deutsche Welle. "I had always imagined that there would be lines of blue helmets out there in the street on a daily basis as a show of strength and force that would provide security and stability for the civil population within unstable environments."

"What actually happens is several thousand Bangladeshi soldiers turn up at the airport one day and then go to their camp, the next time you see them is when they are leaving at the airport again. In the five years that I worked in Juba I could count on one hand the amount of UN patrols that I saw in the street. Saying that, when small scale fighting did break out in the Upper Nile area over the past few years they did deploy troops between the factions and managed to dissipate the tension and flash points in the area."

UN mission facing growing unease in Southern Sudan

"UNMIS has a mixed reputation," Richard Gowan, an Africa expert at the European Council for Foreign Affairs, told Deutsche Welle. "It originally deployed slowly, and has been accused of responding slowly to outbreaks of violence in South Sudan - although it did deploy troops to a number of at-risk areas last year, apparently deterring attacks. South Sudan remains volatile - over 400 civilians have been killed there this year alone - and there are reports that the population is dissatisfied with the UN's performance."

"The mission has also suffered from a shortage of civilian experts, and is constrained by South Sudan's lack of good roads and basic infrastructure. These factors set limits on what the mission can achieve," Gowan added. "The good news is that the UN has now sent a new team of senior officials, headed by senior African diplomat Haile Menkerios, to take control of the situation. Menkerios is very well-respected, and has a clear grasp of the Sudanese situation."

Despite this, there is some concern that UNMIS may not be able to cope in its current form should the peace accord collapse and Sudan is plunged once more into civil war. The mission's operating area is huge and it only has around 9,000 soldiers with the military primarily focused on monitoring the situation rather than protecting civilians directly.

Current mission status not strong enough to deal with war

Many experts believe that the mission will face very serious tests if the South votes for independence next year. There is a high chance that this will lead to a wave of violence, and that UN forces will come under pressure to react more forcefully than they have before.

"The UN may have to call for extra troops - either bringing in soldiers from its UNAMID mission in Darfur, or having to ask another organization like the EU to send rapid reaction forces," Richard Gowan said.

"Beyond any immediate crisis, there may be calls for the UN to take on a more extensive role in building up a new state in South Sudan - some experts are even talking about giving it the sort of executive mandate it had in Kosovo and East Timor. For now, UNMIS has to try and head off violence around the referendum. The odds are daunting, and UNMIS needs all the help it can get."

The scale of a potential crisis surrounding the independence referendum could also expose the UN's frailties elsewhere and could lead to further problems in the already crisis hit region of Darfur.

"While the UN was guilty of prioritizing Darfur over South Sudan in recent years - and so failed to see how dangerous the South was becoming - it now risks ignoring Darfur's ongoing crisis as it tries to save the South," said Gowan.

Author: Nick Amies

Editor: Rob Mudge