US will allow Ukraine to hit deep into Russia, ex-envoy says

DW: Concerning weapons deliveries to Ukraine, do you think the Democrats or the Republicans will grant permission to strike targets deep inside Russia?

Kurt Volker: I think what's going to happen is that, either before or after the election day, the [Joe] Biden administration, without announcing it, will start lifting these restrictions. And they'll probably make decisions on a case-by-case basis. If Trump is elected, he would very likely go much further. He would say to Ukrainians, "Here is a lend-lease package. You can borrow as much money as you need as long as you buy American equipment, and there are no restrictions on what you do with it — provided that when it is time to end the war, when Putin is ready to end the war, you'll end the war, too." He will try to pressure [Vladimir] Putin to end the war, saying, "Stop the war now. We give Ukraine weapons and bring it into NATO, so just stop the war."

Over the next four years, will the incoming administration, of whichever party, take the position that Ukraine should be moved closer to NATO?

Yes, I do think so. What I would like to see is that the US administration takes the view that it is part of the settlement, part of ending the war.  We're definitely not there yet, but I think we are getting there. What is more likely is that you have some kind of settlement or end of the fighting. And then, to make that permanent, you then bring Ukraine into NATO, and then there's going to be a permanent peace and permanent deterrence.

A high-level Lithuanian politician said to me recently, "The moment the Americans tell the Ukrainians, 'It is OK to strike targets deep inside the Russian territory' and support this with weapons deliveries, the European allies are going to follow suit." Do you agree?

Yes. America is the laggard here. The Americans are holding everyone back, and Germany is hiding behind the US position.

Russian planes are entering NATO airspace. Russian drones are crashing into the territory of NATO members, especially in Eastern Europe. Nothing is being done about it. Does that undermine NATO's credibility in Putin's eyes? And what would you propose to do in such circumstances?

I'm very concerned about this. We are currently in a situation where Russian drones and vessels have repeatedly violated the airspace of NATO members, particularly in Romania and Poland. It is quite shocking that NATO is not doing more about this. It is unacceptable, in my view, to have your airspace violated, to have a constant threat to your own population that is caused by these dangerous actions by Russia. I would like to see NATO activate its air defenses and say, "We're going to have an extended air defense zone. It might be 100 or 200 kilometers in Poland and eastern Romania. We shall not allow dangerous objects to be flown in that area and shall start taking them down." I'm sure that Ukrainians would agree to that. We need to ask them because it concerns their airspace, too.

Last week, Putin called for another new nuclear doctrine, this time to allow nuclear response even to a conventional strike. Do you take his words seriously?

Not really. I take them as being said to influence Western policy. He's trying to get the West to back down from aiding Ukraine, authorizing the use of long-range systems by the Ukrainians. He's doing it for the purpose of the impact that he can get on Western policy, not because he's actually changing anything in his own thinking about nuclear weapons. Do you think any kind of doctrine would prevent Putin from deciding to use a nuclear weapon if he felt that he wanted to? He is not going to be bound by whatever a doctrine says on paper. The reality is that it's not the doctrine but the consequences of using nuclear weapons that would rebound very badly on Russia that prevent him from doing it.

Say Putin explodes a nuclear device somewhere on Russia's testing ground on Novaya Zemlya archipelago in the Arctic Sea. How should the West react?

I don't think you want to overreact to Russia exploding something on its own land. But I think there should be a very stern warning, "Don't use nuclear weapons as part of your war campaign against Ukraine because there will be a direct consequence, and your forces will be destroyed if you do so."

Kurt Volker served as a special envoy to Ukraine under the Donald Trump administration from 2017 to 2019. He was tasked with helping resolve its armed confrontation with Russian-backed separatists in Crimea, a region in southeast Ukraine. He also served as George Bush's US ambassador to NATO during the last year of the former president's second term.

This interview was conducted by Konstantin Eggert.

Edited by: Davis VanOpdorp