What can Iran expect from a potential Trump presidency?

As Donald Trump takes the Republican nomination for the US presidential race, capitals around the world are considering what a second Trump administration would mean for them should he be elected to the White House in November.

Tehran was in the crosshairs of the first Trump administration, with a policy called "maximum pressure" aimed at forcing Iran to curb its development of nuclear weapons by applying sanctions on oil exports, banking, and shipping that effectively crippled the country's economy.

A second term could mean more prolonged economic hardship in Iran, increasing public discontent and potential destabilization of the regime. 

Trump has made no secret that he considers the administration of current US President Joe Biden to be too soft on Tehran.

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Trump said that had he been elected in 2020, Iran would have "had to deal."

"Iran had no money … I would have made a great deal with them—no nuclear weapons," Trump said. "I saw what was happening, they were on the path to a nuclear weapon. I ended the Iran nuclear deal, which was very important to do, it was the stupidest deal," Trump told Bloomberg.

Trump wants a 'deal'

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the nuclear deal, was reached in 2015 between Iran, the US and several other major economies.

It envisioned billions in sanctions relief in exchange for Iran dismantling its nuclear program and allowing international inspections. In May 2018, Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from the deal, saying it allowed Iran access to money used to fund proxy warfare in the region and supply a ballistic missile program.

Although the Biden administration said it would re-enter JCPOA, intermittent negotiations have failed to yield results.

Meanwhile, during the Biden administration, Iran's oil revenues have grown significantly.

The Financial Times reported on April 30 that Iran's oil exports reached their highest level in the last six years with China as the main customer of these shipments. 

Biden has been criticized by Republicans for failing to enforce sanctions on Iran, including those designed to limit oil shipments to China. A major talking point has been that this allows Iranian money to fund proxy terror organizations in the Middle East, like Hamas and Hezbollah.

"The problem is Biden has done nothing with [the deal]. I ended it. But we would have had a deal … they were broke. They didn't have any money for Hamas … they had no money for Hezbollah," Trump told Bloomberg.

Azadeh Eftekhari, a political analyst and managing editor at Independent Persian, told DW that a second trump administration will be dealing with a Islamic Republic under different conditions.

"Today, there are two significant wars: the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war, which now also involves Hezbollah, one of the Islamic Republic's arms in the region. Iran's nuclear program has also seen significant development under the Biden administration," she said.

Hawkish overtones at RNC 

Trump's running mate, JD Vance, recently criticized Biden's policy, adding that Trump had prevented Iran from accessing money and "controlled" the behavior of the Iranian regime.

Vance also criticized the Biden administration's strikes against the Houthis in Yemen and Iranian proxies in Iraq as "weak little bombing runs."

Republican Senator Marco Rubio, who has appeared with Trump on the campaign trial, said at the Republican National Convention (RNC) that "the Islamic Republic was bankrupt during Trump's time, but under Biden, it has money to support terrorism." 

Trump told the convention that Iran is "on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons."

"The nuclear issue will be one of the main issues between the Islamic Republic and a potential Trump administration," Eftekhari said.

"An increase in pressures and the imposition of sanctions, which had been almost suspended under the Biden administration, is foreseeable," she added.

Iran denies reports of plot to kill Trump

Trump also targeted Iranian interests with force during his administration.

In April 2019, Trump designated Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization. In January 2020, Qassem Soleimani, head of the IRGC's Quds Force, was killed near Baghdad Airport in a US drone strike ordered by Trump.

Iran has repeatedly promised revenge for Soleimani's death, although publicly, Iranian officials say Trump should be brought to justice in a court of law.

This was brought to light again this week after US media reported that US intelligence uncovered an Iranian-backed assassination plot against Trump. The alleged plot was said to have no connection to Saturday's assassination attempt in Pennsylvania. 

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani denied the reports as having "malicious political motives and objectives." However, he added that Iran still intends to "prosecute" Trump over Soleimani's death.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn