What does Trump's election win mean for Afghanistan?

Donald Trump once described the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan as "the most embarrassing moment in the history of our country."

The pullout was completed in August 2021 under the administration led by Trump successor and rival, Joe Biden.

Since leaving the White House, Trump has insisted he would have dealt with the Taliban and the US withdrawal in a different manner. However, many Trump critics see the US-Taliban deal in Doha, concluded near the end of Trump's first term in 2020, as paving the way for the Taliban to return to power.

What Trump and his critics agree on is that the Doha deal was never fully implemented. The Taliban did not keep most of the promises they had made in Qatar, including those on forming an inclusive government and engaging in talks with other Afghan leaders.

Trump threatened to 'bomb the hell out' of Afghanistan

One of Trump's ideas is that the US should have kept the Bagram Airbase in Afghanistan instead of letting the Taliban claim "$85 billion [€80.5 billion] worth of military equipment."

This monetary estimate is incorrectly based on the total funds spent by the US on Afghan security forces since the invasion. A 2022 probe by the US Department of Defense put the value of the abandoned equipment at around $7 billion, as reported by US media.

Shortly after the Taliban takeover in August 2021, Trump said "every penny" of the $85 billion should be returned to the US, and if not, "we should either go in with unequivocal Military force ... and get it, or at least bomb the hell out of it."

Taliban hope for 'tangible advancement'

Tensions seem to be running far lower following Trump's electoral victory last week. Zalmay Khalilzad, who brokered the US-Taliban deal in Doha for the Trump administration, recently called for the revival of the Doha Agreement.

"With Trump's return to the US presidency, there is an opportunity for the full implementation of all the elements of the Doha Agreement in Afghanistan," said Khalilzad, who has previously served as the US ambassador to Afghanistan and Iraq.

The Taliban also responded to Trump's political return with cautious optimism, hoping he would "adopt a pragmatic approach to ensure tangible advancement in bilateral relations, allowing both nations to open a new chapter of relations grounded in mutual engagement."

Will the US change its stance on Taliban under Trump?

Trump is reportedly keen to make Marco Rubio his US secretary of state and Michael Waltz his national security adviser. Both politicians have been critical of the Taliban in recent years, and have called for more pressure on the Islamic fundamentalist group.

Trump himself has criticized the Taliban and signaled he would deal with them from a position of power. However, experts believe his approach to Afghanistan will depend on his overall foreign policy.

"Mr. Trump's administration could restart negotiations on the Doha deal, or his team could start working on a completely new agreement," former Afghan diplomat Omar Samad told DW, adding that the new US administration could also adopt a mix of the two options based on the "ground realities of Afghanistan."

"At this point, we do not know how the president-elect will deal with Afghanistan," Samad added.

Afghanistan not a priority for Trump

Other experts and people involved in talks with the Taliban before their 2021 takeover have said Washington cannot afford to ignore Afghanistan for long.

Mohammad Natiqi, a member of the former Afghan government's negotiating team with the Taliban, believes the situation in Afghanistan can have an impact on regional security; therefore, the new US administration would have to act.

"The human rights situation and poverty in Afghanistan give the international community and the US new responsibilities in Afghanistan," Natiqi told DW. At the same time, the expert warned Afghanistan is not Trump's priority.

Ukraine, Middle East still center stage

The ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are seen as more urgent tasks for Trump and his new administration. During his campaign, Trump has repeatedly stated that he would resolve the conflict in Ukraine even before taking office. While it remains to be seen if the Ukraine war will be wrapped up by the presidential inauguration in January, any changes in Washington's approach to Kabul would only come after the existing crises have been dealt with, said Jehangir Khattak, the director of communications at the Center for Community Media in New York.

"Trump will focus on the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and will not start something new before those two are resolved," Khattak told DW.

"It is important that Mr. Trump does not see Afghanistan as a country which could turn into a safe haven for terrorists," Khattak said, noting that the Taliban have so far managed to reassure the international community that this was not the case.

Helay Asad and Ahmad Waheed Ahmady contributed to this article.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic