The Electoral College will determine the winner

Upon first (and maybe second) glance, it may seem impossible to make heads or tails of the Electoral College, the proportional system that ultimately determines the winner of the US presidential election. Let us break it down for you. 

Why did the US decide on this system?

The Electoral College was established by the framers of the US Constitution in 1787. At the time, the United States was a brand-new country and fully independent from Britain after the Revolutionary War. 

The men who drew up the Constitution, referred to in the United States as the Founding Fathers, wanted to establish an electoral system that would not centralize power, which they worried could create a monarchy-like structure similar to the one they had just freed themselves from. 

But the idea of elections entirely by the people posed its own challenges. Some of the framers were concerned the electorate was not educated enough to make responsible and informed voting decisions. National literacy rates were low, and, at the time, no other country chose its leaders through a popular vote.

The framers saw the Electoral College as a sort of compromise between a population vote and giving a single entity the responsibility of picking the president. So they decided that appointed electors in each state would vote for the president.

How does the Electoral College work? 

The US government is comprised of the theoretically coequal executive branch (the president and Cabinet), the judicial branch (the Supreme Court) and the legislative branch (Congress). Congress is made up of two entities: the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Each state has two members in the Senate. They represent the entire state at the federal level. Congresspeople the House of Representatives represent individual districts within a state.

The number of congressional representatives a state has is determined via the US Census, which counts the population every 10 years. 

California is the state with the highest population, so it has the highest number of representatives: 52. States with relatively small populations, such as Alaska, only have a single representative. 

Each US state receives an electoral vote for each member of its congressional delegation. So, California has 54 electoral votes — 52 for its House representatives, and two for its senators. 

Alaska has three electoral votes: one for its House representative and two for its senators. 

Altogether, there are 535 members of Congress, and with three electors in Washington D.C. that means there are 538 electoral votes up for grabs in the US presidential race — 270 are needed to win the election.

Whom do Americans vote for, if not the president?   

When US citizens vote in the presidential election, they are voting for the candidate's electors. In most states, the candidate who wins the state's population vote receives all the state's electors. For example, the candidate who wins the popular vote in California — regardless of the margin of victory — would get all 54 electoral votes.

Maine and Nebraska are the only states that do not award all electors to a single candidate based on the majority vote. In both of these states, electoral votes can be split between candidates based on how the population voted. 

Although there is no constitutional law requiring electors to vote for the candidate who receives the majority vote in their state, it is extremely rare for electors to vote against the will of their state's voters. According to the US Office of the Federal Registrar, "more than 99% of electors have voted as pledged."

Can a candidate lose the popular vote and still become president? 

Yes. This has occurred five times in US history. In 2016, Donald Trump lost the popular vote by some 3 million votes but won the Electoral College. George W. Bush lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College against Al Gore in 2000. In the 1800s, it occurred three times.

What happens if no candidate gets a majority? 

In the rare event of a tie, with both candidates receiving 269 Electoral College votes and just missing the required 270 to win, the House of Representatives is tasked with deciding the winner. Each state delegation would receive one vote, and a majority (26) would be needed to win. To date, there has never been a tie in the Electoral College.

When is the winner announced? 

Congress counts the electoral votes on January 6 and the president is inaugurated on January 20. By the time results come in on Election Day, the winner is usually clear, and the January 6 announcement doesn't come as a surprise.

But counting the votes can also take some time — in 2020, Joe Biden was announced as the winner on November 7, four days after Election Day on November 3.

The winner of the 2024 election will be inaugurated into office on January 20.

What are swing states? Why are they important? 

Most US states vote for the same party year after year. Democrats have won California in the presidential election since 1992, for example. Republicans have won Mississippi since 1980. 

Swing states, on the other hand, "swing" back and forth between voting Republican and voting Democrat. They are where candidates campaign heavily for votes, because they ultimately determine the election.

Political scientists have said this year's battleground states are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Michigan. 

What else are Americans voting for in 2024? 

Americans will also vote for new members of Congress in both the Senate and House of Representatives on November 5. Four hundred and sixty-eight seats — 33 in the Senate and 435 in the House — will be up for grabs.

Many states will also vote on individual state-level ballot measures alongside the presidential vote on November 5. These differ depending on the state. Abortion represents one of the biggest and most politically contentious issues expected to make it on a number of states' ballots in November.

Edited by: J. Wingard

Correction, September 9, 2024: An earlier version of this article gave the incorrect number of Congress members. This has now been corrected.