What will happen if Argentina quits Paris Climate Agreement?

Last week, Argentina's climate-skeptic president, Javier Milei, ordered his negotiators to abruptly leave the COP29 talks taking place in Baku, Azerbaijan, where countries are hashing out a deal on new financing targets for climate action.

Milei, who has described climate change as a "socialist lie," has made it clear that environmental concerns are far down his list of priorities. 

Since taking office in December last year, he has downgraded Argentina's Environment Ministry to a subsecretariat, removed a fund for forest protection and passed a law that would further boost the oil and gas sector. 

Now there are worries that the far-right leader will pull his country out of the Paris Climate Agreement, following in the footsteps of his ally, US President-elect Donald Trump. 

Trump has said he wants to walk out on the international treaty, which aims to limit global average temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit), for a second time once he re-enters the White House. 

What impact will Argentina's actions have? 

The withdrawal of Argentina from the COP29 summit implies that the country it is out of any current negotiations, including talks on potential energy transition or adaptation funds, said Maria Victoria Emanuelli, Buenos-Aires based Latin America campaign director of environmental NGO 350.org. 

Emanuelli described the decision as "erratic and unpredictable" and said it could cost Argentina a considerable sum needed for climate action and ultimately harm the poorest in society. 

"The vulnerable populations in Argentina are also the ones who suffer more the extreme climate phenomena, but Milei's policies clearly show that this is not important for his government," she said.

But Emanuelli didn't think that Argentina's withdrawal would undermine the negotiations themselves because the country is a "small player on the international scene." 

Going further and pulling out of the Paris Agreement would have such far-reaching implications for Argentina's society and economy that it "borders on absurdity,” said Andrew Forth, head of policy and advocacy at Climate Group, an international NGO focused on climate action.

"Excluding itself from global discussions not only weakens Argentina's ability to influence rules of trade, climate finance and international cooperation, it also leaves the country sidelined in shaping the very rules that will determine its future resilience and prosperity and help address the escalating impacts of climate change at home," he said.

How is climate change already impacting Argentina? 

Argentina is vulnerable to a wide range of climate change impacts that vary across its vast and diverse landscapes, including deserts, huge shorelines and glaciers, as well as both subtropical and subantarctic regions.  

In recent years, the country has been hit by extreme heat, severe drought, water scarcity and destructive flooding. In the summer months of 2022-2023, the country experienced its highest temperatures in 60 years. 

Two consecutive heat waves, which saw record-breaking temperatures in Argentina and Paraguay during that season, were made 60 times more likely due to human-induced climate change, according to a study by World Weather Attribution, a UK-based academic institution.

As climate change continues to heat the planet, the country is expected to suffer more frequent and intense floods, droughts and wildfires, as well as rising sea levels and accelerated melting of the country's numerous glaciers, according to the World Bank. 

Under a 2 C global temperature rise, which the world is on track to pass, Argentina would see a 33% increase in agricultural drought frequency and 1,032% increase in heat wave duration, according to a report from the CMCC Foundation, a research center focusing on climate change and society. 

Where does Argentina stand on climate action? 

Although, the country has committed to net-zero emissions by 2050, Argentina's climate policies and plans to cut emissions — committed to under the Paris Agreement — have been deemed "critically insufficient" by scientists from Climate Action Tracker. CAT is an independent scientific project monitoring government climate measures. 

CAT highlights that in 2022, the country fast-tracked the building of a pipeline to substantially increase gas production and continues to expand oil extraction and offshore fossil fuel exploration. 

While Argentina's diverse geography and climate means that it has much potential for renewables, such as solar, wind and hydropower, 88% of its energy comes from fossil fuels. It currently contributes to less than 1% of global emissions. 

What could the future hold for climate action under Milei's presidency? 

The threats of Argentina leaving the Paris Agreement should be taken with a pinch of salt as they are partly a performance, said Veronica Geese, energy secretary of the Argentinian province of Santa Fe. 

"Argentina can't leave the Paris Agreement because it's reinforced by law, so it will not happen — at least not soon," Geese said.

She added that, despite the approach of the presidency, many local governments such as hers in Sante Fe province would continue to push forward their climate goals and commitments.

If Milei pursues his aim of leaving the Paris Agreement, it would serve to further isolate the country, according to Niklas Höhne, an expert in climate policy at nonprofit think tank NewClimate Institute. 

"Argentina will become even less attractive as a trading partner for anyone who takes climate protection seriously, especially now that various countries, above all the EU, are introducing import duties for climate-damaging products," said Höhne. 

Oscar Soria, head of The Common Initiative, a New York-based group campaigning for financial reform to promote biodiversity, told AFP that global climate action will continue "with or without Argentina." 

"That was shown in the United States when Donald Trump took the decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement in 2017," said Soria.

Edited by: Jennifer Collins