What's behind Ukraine's Kursk operation in Russia?

What is known about Ukraine's advance into Russia's Kursk region?

As of August 9, Ukrainian troops had advanced as far as 35 kilometers (21 miles) into Russian territory in the Kursk region, according to the US-based Institute for the Study of War. However, they reportedly do not have full control of the area. Other military experts believe this assessment to be realistic.

There have been reports of fierce fighting, deaths and casualties in the area. However, no independent reports from the region itself are available. Information on the fighting stems largely from social networks, Russian military bloggers and authorities.

Why did the Ukrainian army advance into Russian territory?

Military experts have said various political and military factors explain Ukraine's surprise offensive.

One argument is that Ukraine wants to conquer as much Russian territory as possible and thus exert pressure on Moscow. This would strengthen Ukraine's position in possible peace negotiations with Russia. Ukrainian land occupied by Russia could be exchanged for Russian land conquered by Ukraine.

From a strategic perspective, the advance onto Russian soil could also create a buffer zone for the population in the contested areas of Ukraine. In addition, the advance is intended to weaken the Russian army.

It could also force Russia to deploy more troops to the embattled border region, thus weakening the Russian army along the main front line in Ukraine. Russia lacks the manpower to compensate for losses on the front, despite its conscription measures.

Is Ukraine harming itself?

Ukraine has taken a risk by advancing on Russian territory and could end up losing more troops than Russia.

On the other hand, Ukraine has gained new fighting power thanks to continued military support from the West, said Ukrainian military expert Oleh Zhdanov. He added that, above all, the advance was a political success for Ukraine, which is putting pressure on the Russian leadership.

Was the operation planned long in advance?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his entourage have not yet explicitly commented on the advance into Russia. Experts, however, believe the military operation was planned for months and that Western military support helped.

How long can Ukraine keep up the pressure?

The Ukrainian army will probably be unable to hold all of the Russian territory it has advanced on. At the moment, however, initial assessments suggest Ukraine's efforts are proving relatively successful because the territory was apparently poorly defended by Russia.

How long Ukraine can sustain the operation will ultimately depend on the West and its military support for Ukraine.

How is the Kursk operation linked to recent gas price increases?

Russia's Kursk region plays an important role in the gas supply chain. The last transit station through which gas flows from Russia to Europe via Ukraine is located near the small town of Sudzha. So far, gas has continued to flow uninterrupted.

The importance of Russian gas exports to Europe has, however, decreased since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

This article was originally written in Russian.