Quo Vadis Afghanistan

Germany's Afghanistan mission, allied with the US and other participating states, had three primary goals: it aimed to destroy the al Qaeda terror network in the country, establish a democratic government based on the rule of law, and stabilize a very volatile region.

According to Johannes Pflug, spokesman for the Afghanistan Task Force in the Social Democratic parliamentary group in the German Bundestag, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) saw a fair amount of success in reaching the first goal. Al Qaeda has largely been driven out of the country and US special troops killed terror leader Osama bin Laden in Pakistan.

While al Qaeda has been a decentralized network for some time now, whose missions are no longer planned in Afghanistan, the death of bin Laden offers the Taliban "the opportunity to distance themselves from terror and terrorist organizations," Pflug said.

The negotiating table

For Major General Bruno Kasdorf, deputy commander of the German armed forces and ISAF chief of staff in Kabul in 2007 and 2010, the anti-terror fight in Afghanistan was and continues to be one of the international community's primary security concerns, especially in light of the planned troop pull-out.

"We still have to focus on the fight against terrorism. We are applying pressure on the insurgents to get them to the negotiating table or encourage them to lay down their arms and reintegrate into society," he said.

The international community has largely agreed that a long-lasting peace in Afghanistan will not be achieved through military but rather political means. The Taliban must also sign up to whatever plan is agreed to put an end to the violence and instability.

Still, any solution to the country's problems has to come with conditions, according to Michael Steiner, the German government's special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan.

"A political solution must include an acceptance of the current constitution," he said at a discussion in early June in Bonn. "Any party who wants to be part of such a solution has to cut their connections to international terrorism and reject the use of violence."

But many in Afghanistan are still ready to use violent means to achieve their aims. There have been more suicide attacks in the first half of 2011 than in any year since the beginning of the mission there.

Military officials and diplomats believe they know the reason for this. While ISAF troops under the command of US General David Petraeus have been successful in putting the insurgents on the defensive, that success has led fighters to turn to more desperate measures, including suicide attacks.

The number of German soldiers killed in Afghanistan since 2002 has now surpassed 50. The risks associated with the mission continue to increase and increasingly Germans are uncomfortable with the mission.

Many ask themselves whether the death of so many troops is worth the stated goal.

Security handover

At the end of the transition period ending in 2014, Germany will have pulled all of its soldiers out of the country. Until that time, the military forces will be working to create stability that can be maintained even after the last ISAF troops board the transport plane home.

"There can no longer be safe havens for terrorists in the country, nor can the insurgents have the ability to defy or even topple the Afghan government," said Kasdorf.

By 2014, the Afghan army and police will take over all responsibilities for security in the country. By this November, a total of 172,000 Afghan soldiers and 134,000 police officers will have been trained.

"Now we have to make sure that they can cope with the task in front of them," Kasdorf added. "We have already laid a solid foundation, which is why I think they'll succeed."

Civil worries

While many experts agreed that there has been real progress regarding the security situation, they are more critical around the question of a healthy civil society.

There are some bright spots, particularly in education. Seven million children in Afghanistan attend school regularly, including two million girls.

But after a decade of massive support from the international community, according to the United Nations there are still almost eight million Afghans, out of population of just under 30 million, who are dependent on outside food aid.

Development expert Matthias Mogge, a director at Welthungerhilfe, a German NGO with a strong presence in Afghanistan, said there is much that still needs to be done, including in the area of good governance.

While a state under the rule of law was theoretically established by the 2004 constitution, much of the Afghan population still lacks any kind of legal security and government transparency is a foreign concept, especially in the provinces.

"Unfortunately, it's like that many parts of the country," he said.

Changing tactics

Over the next 12 months, the US will pull 30,000 of its soldiers out of the country, and the German contingent will shrink as well. How many German troops will leave this year is not known at present. Military planners are wary of giving the enemy too much information.

But the drawdown does not mean, as it did after the Soviets withdrew their troops in 1989, that Afghanistan will be left to fend for itself.

At a large Afghanistan Conference planned this December in Bonn, Germany, the international community plans to give a clear signal that it has no intention of abandoning the troubled country.

"Even after 2014, we will remain engaged in the country, but we will just use other means," said Steiner.

Author: Daniel Scheschkewitz (jam)
Editor: Rob Mudge