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HealthEurope

Europe enters second pandemic winter

Barbara Wesel
October 22, 2021

COVID-19 infection and mortality rates currently vary vastly across Europe. What is the situation with vaccine uptake and coronavirus restrictions? And what might be expected in the different countries this winter?

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EU sign next to traffic light imprinted with coronaviruses
European countries have disparate strategies to manage the pandemic — with varying successImage: Bildagentur-online/Ohde/picture alliance

Italy

On October 15, Italy imposed the toughest vaccination requirements in all of Europe. All employees must now show a "green pass" indicating that they have been vaccinated, have recently recovered from infection or have tested negative in the past 48 hours. Anyone wanting to eat out or spend time in public spaces like the movies must also show their pass. Masks are still compulsory in indoor public areas.

This policy appears to be working, because Italy — with a seven-day incidence of 29 infections per 100,000 inhabitants — now has one of the lowest rates of transmission. The Mediterranean country had been the epicenter of COVID-19 in Europe when the pandemic started in 2020.

Prime Minister Mario Draghi, the former head of the European Central Bank, opted for strict rules in the hopes that the economy might recover quicker. Fortunately for him, the majority of Italians have accepted the idea of a COVID passport. Eighty percent of adults are already vaccinated. Draghi's strict measures have also boosted Italy's faltering inoculation campaign.

In Italy, workers scan their Green Passes as part of workplace coronavirus measures
Italy's national rail carrier requires employees to scan their Green Pass before starting workImage: Andrew Medichini/AP/picture alliance

United Kingdom

As one of the first countries in Europe to start widespread vaccinations, the UK was ahead of the curve at the beginning of 2021. However, its initial advantage seems to have been lost: Vaccine uptake is stalling, and some virologists believe that the effects of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine may wear off after about six months. Among adults, 79% are now fully vaccinated. People who are older than 50 or considered clinically vulnerable are now being offered third jabs to boost their immunity.

With a seven-day incidence of 479 cases per 100,000 people, the UK is experiencing a sharp rise in infections. England in particular is seeing high infection rates, with deaths and hospitalizations correspondingly high. England lifted virtually all pandemic restrictions on July 19, which was promptly dubbed "Freedom Day." Employees have now been told that they should stop working from home and return to their offices. Commuter traffic is almost back to pre-pandemic levels.

Experts had warned in summer that it was too soon to lift restrictions. Now, representatives of the National Health Service (NHS) are calling for the reintroduction of protective measures, such as mandatory masking in public places, and warn that a "winter crisis" is looming. However, the government is still declining to impose new restrictions. "We don't believe they are unsustainable," Health Minister Sajid Javid said Wednesday of the pressures that the NHS is facing. And Kwasi Kwarteng, the secretary of state for business, has insisted that there will not be any more lockdowns.

London woman carries sign reading "No to the experimental jab" while wearing a baseball cap
Britain vaccinated early and widely, but some opposing vaccination have since hampered the effortImage: Martyn Wheatley/Parsons Media/imago images

Latvia

With a seven-day incidence of more than 800 new infections per 100,000 people, Latvia has just imposed a lockdown that will last until mid-November. Deaths and cases of symptomatic illness are also rising sharply. Just over half of people in Latvia are vaccinated. This reflects the trend in other countries in the region, where vaccination skepticism is high and trust in authorities is generally low.

"I apologize to those who have already been vaccinated, but the restrictions will apply to everyone," Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins said on Monday. All restaurants, cinemas and other public places will be closed again, and a curfew will be in place from 8 p.m. to 5 a.m. Only grocery stores will remain open. Latvians are being urged to go back to working from home.

Hospitals are stretched to the limit, and are now postponing all routine treatments to allow the intensive care units to focus almost exclusively on COVID-19 patients.

People wearing masks present their vaccination certificates to a masked security agent
Latvia's current shutdown measures apply to both vaccinated and unvaccinated peopleImage: Janis Laizans/Xinhua/picture alliance

Portugal

Portugal's government imposed tough restrictions on public life early on after the country was almost overwhelmed at the start of the pandemic. At present, the country is recording low infection rates, with a seven-day incidence of 46 per 100,000 residents, including relatively few deaths and hospitalizations. This is the result of an exemplary vaccination campaign. In Portugal, 85% of people are fully vaccinated, putting the country at the top of the chart for vaccinations in Europe.

The success of the vaccination campaign can be credited to quasimilitary planning by an admiral of the Portuguese navy. He took over the coronavirus task force in February, commandeering large sports facilities to use as vaccination centers where people could move through as if in a factory. The officer has since declared his mission successfully concluded.

In this, he had Portuguese history on his side. In the early 1970s, the country had an extremely high infant mortality rate, which was brought down with the help of the public health system and widespread vaccination. Since then, there has been widespread acceptance of vaccination in Portugal, there are hardly any vaccination skeptics, and most citizens are trusting of government measures.

Portugal's successful vaccine rollout

Poland

In 2020, Poland recorded one of the highest COVID-19 death rates in the European Union. Officials are now warning that people must brace themselves for the deaths of more friends and relatives this winter, as Poland has recorded an explosion of COVID-19 infections in recent days. On Wednesday, the health minister said that, should the trend continue, "drastic steps" would be taken. However, he still rules out imposing a fresh lockdown.

The dramatic increase was unexpected, and is not yet reflected in the official statistics from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Poland's figures are also well below those of other European countries, but this is possibly because less testing is done in Poland.

Guests enjoy drinks and food in Krakow after coronavirus restrictions were relaxed in May 2021
Poles returned to public life in May after coronavirus restrictions were relaxedImage: Dominika Zarzycka/NurPhoto/picture alliance

The government is now warning that Poland is on the brink of a fourth wave, and describes the latest figures as "a red warning light" for unvaccinated people. New cases of symptomatic illness and deaths are at their highest levels since early summer. Only 52% of people are fully vaccinated, significantly lower than the EU average.

The vaccination campaign in Poland got off to a fairly good start, but for months now has been stagnating. All the government's attempts to encourage citizens to get the vaccine, such as creating a lottery that vaccinated people can enter, have not been able to increase lagging numbers. So far, however, the government has shied away from stronger measures such as those imposed in Italy.

Germany

in 2020, Germany seemed to be exemplary in how it was dealing with the pandemic. However, the national vaccination campaign is now faltering. Only 66% of residents are fully vaccinated, putting Germany behind France, Spain, Italy. There are doubts that not many of the people remaining would be willing to receive the vaccine. The situation is particularly bleak in the former East German states.

Aign of winky smily face wearing a mask
Although coronavirus restrictions vary by region in Germany, masks in indoor public spaces continue to be broadly requiredImage: Robert Michael/dpa-Zentralbild/picture alliance

Unlike other EU countries, Germany has avoided requiring vaccination. A survey of hospital staff showed that vaccine skeptics continue to be worried about possible side effects, and many among the so-called vaccine hesitatn still want to wait. In neighboring France, the vaccination rate rose abruptly when health care workers, police and firefighters were required to be vaccinated and a COVID passport was introduced for travel and for going to restaurants.

Germany's seven-day incidence is still in the lower range. However, with winter approaching, medical professionals are worried about the country's low vaccination rate. A patchwork of protective measures with varying strictness is enforced across states and regions.

This article has been translated from German.