Why did Vietnam's new leader To Lam visit China first?

To Lam, the newly appointed general secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party, traveled to Beijing on August 19 for his first foreign trip since assuming the role earlier this month.

During his visit, To Lam met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and Premier Li Qiang.

The Vietnamese leader described his nation's ties to Beijing as "top priority in Vietnam's external policy" and agreed with Xi to boost cooperation on defense and security.

For the past decade, Vietnam has pursued a "bamboo diplomacy" strategy, focusing on balancing relationships with all major powers.

However, the country remains embroiled in long-standing territorial disputes with China over the South China Sea, fueling public resentment in Vietnam against what many perceive as a submissive stance towards an historical adversary.

Hanoi has also significantly improved relations with the United States, also a former enemy, although some within the Vietnamese Communist Party remain wary of Washington's potential regime-change ambitions.

To Lam became the president in May after previously serving as Vietnam's public security minister. He also assumed the role of Communist Party chief after his predecessor Nguyen Phu Trong died in office last month. His decision to travel to China has raised eyebrows in the West, as some observers are speculating it signals a change in the country's foreign policy.

Speculation about Vietnam turning to China 'overblown,' analyst says

Zachery Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, warns against putting too much weight on the trip.

"All the reports about Vietnam's lurch to China under To Lam are totally overblown. The trip had been scheduled months ago," he told DW.

Newly appointed leaders of Vietnam's Communist Party tend to first visit traditional allies and neighbors, Cambodia or Laos, after taking office.

However, To Lam had already traveled to both countries in July after being elected state president.

"China is always the first stop after a Vietnamese leader travels to Laos and Cambodia," Abuza added. 

To Lam will need to build a personal rapport with President Xi, who governs China with a more authoritarian approach than his predecessors.

While Hanoi has been trying to be discreet about territorial clashes with China, Vietnam has also recently irritated Beijing by conducting a joint military operation with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

"Vietnam, under Nguyen Phu Trong, did an exceptionally good job at convincing China of Vietnam's studious neutrality," Abuza added. "That will continue under Lam."

To Lam also added a patriotic flair to the trip by visiting Guangdong province, where Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam's national hero, lived 100 years ago while establishing the Communist Party.

To Lam rumored to be heading to New York

It would have been highly unusual for To Lam to visit the United States or another Western democracy on his first trip as party chief, as general secretaries typically prioritize visits to other Communist-led nations.

There are rumors, however, that To Lam could visit the United States next month.

A Vietnamese government source, who requested anonymity, told DW that To Lam is expected to visit New York for either the next UN General Assembly meeting on 10 September or the UN's Summit Of The Future later in the month and meet with US officials on the sidelines. 

DW understands that there are also ongoing discussions between Hanoi and Washington regarding whether To Lam's trip to the US could also be a state visit, including a meeting with US President Joe Biden.

Last year, Vietnam upgraded its relationship with the US to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. This was quickly followed by China's Xi Jinping visiting Hanoi.

Vietnam still friend to everyone

Analysts suggest that any significant change in Vietnam’s foreign relations would only occur if one of its main partners altered its stance first.

Indeed, To Lam’s visit to China this week was intended to reassure Beijing that it does not need to alter its approach to Vietnam just because of a leadership change in Hanoi.

During his rise to power, To Lam has purged much of the Communist Party's senior leadership of technocrats and Western-leaning officials, leaving the Politburo top-heavy with "securocrats" from the public security ministry and military.

This has led some commentators to argue that Vietnam is becoming more of a police state.

His rule is likely to further intensify state repression and crackdowns on civil society activism, which have worsened considerably since 2016, according to human rights groups.

Western leaders are also likely to be irritated by To Lam meeting with Vladimir Putin in June, while the Russian president was visiting Hanoi.

Still, neither the US nor the European Union appear eager to disrupt relations with one of Asia's fastest-growing economies and a key market in their attempts to "de-risk” from China.

In the EU, To Lam was accused of being involved in the Vietnamese secret service's kidnapping of a German national in Berlin in 2017.

The victim was reportedly flown out of Europe using a plane that the Slovakian government had lent to To Lam's visiting delegation.

Although this initially sparked a diplomatic rift with Germany, relations quickly returned to normal, and Slovakian prosecutors dropped charges against To Lam earlier this year.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic