What's next for China and India as Modi, Xi start over?
October 24, 2024
A diplomatic reset between India and China seems to be underway after the leaders of the two countries met at a BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, this week.
Both India's Narendra Modi and China's Xi Jinping made public pledges to improve ties, and praised the recent progress towards solving territorial disputes in the Himalayas.
Chinese President Xi said both China and India were ancient civilizations in a phase of intense development and modernization, and should adhere to the principle of being "partners rather than competitors."
Modi called for "[m]utual trust, mutual respect, and mutual sensitivity" between the two most populous nations in the world.
Border conflicts as a stumbling block
The talks between Xi and Modi come at the heels of a recent deal on patrolling the remote and highly disputed border area between India and China. While the rivalry between the two Asian powers is deep and wide-reaching, their troops clashing in the Himalayas could be seen as a trigger point for the latest diplomatic freeze.
In June 2020, a border clash reportedly caused the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops. In the years between that event and the Kazan BRICS summit, Modi and Xi have not held any formal face-to-face talks, although they have briefly met each other on the sidelines of other international conferences.
The reported border deal will enable Indian troops to resume patrols up to the two major friction areas, Depsang and Demchok. Details remain scarce, however, it is worth noting that China did not use the word "agreement" in its readout of the Modi-Xi meeting, instead labelling it "important progress in resolving relevant issues."
According to a Xinhua report: "Modi put forward ideas and suggestions on improving and developing bilateral relations, to which Xi Jinping agreed in principle."
De-escalation still to come
India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said Beijing and New Delhi would initially focus on disengagement before taking up de-escalation and de-induction of forces at the "appropriate time."
"We will have to make continuous efforts that the mechanics of the agreement will be such that such clashes can be stopped," he said.
While experts have welcomed the intent on both sides to improve their relations, they warned that the talks would not lead to a renewal of business as usual.
"We do not expect any miracles. There will be the need to continue the dialogue and work towards improving the relationship," Alka Acharya, honorary director of the Institute of Chinese Studies in India, told DW.
Moscow as mediator
Acharya believes the BRICS grouping played a "substantial role behind the scenes" in bridging the gap between Beijing and New Delhi.
"Russia's persuasions would have been the most critical. If India and China are unable to talk, it would clearly take the bottom out of BRICS and create a gaping hole in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) forum as well," she said.
The grouping of five major emerging economies comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa represent over 40% of the world's population and almost a third of the global economy. The club decided to expand last year, with six new countries — Egypt, Ethiopia, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran — joining it.
Russia wants India and China to close ranks
While China and Russia push a narrative of using BRICS as a counterweight to the US and G7, other members have been more subdued. Their political systems differ, with India, Brazil and South Africa being democracies, while China and Russia are autocratic. This and other differences tend to hold BRICS back from acting as a cohesive political or economic unit.
"It would appear that the efforts this time have resulted in a breakthrough," Acharya said. "The multilateral groupings are also an important platform for India — which they cannot cede entirely to China. And Russia is a very critical partnership," she added.
Srikanth Kondapalli, a professor of China studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University pointed that China was facing problems such as "economic headwinds, decoupling and derisking from the West, uncertainty about the course of the next US president, and territorial disputes in the neighborhood."
"In forums like BRICS, Russia would also like to see India and China come together so that it can expand the multipolar camp, neutralize sanctions, and reduce reliance on the US dollar as a reserve currency," Kondapalli told DW.
Why is China-India thaw important?
The Modi-Xi meeting in Kazan could "pave the way for normalization" in many areas, former diplomat Sujan Chinoy told DW.
"Resuming direct flights, addressing the trade deficit, and reinstating visa services between India and China could significantly contribute to normalizing relations and enhancing bilateral ties," added Chinoy, who now serves as the head of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses.
He also pointed out that BRICS allows India and China to be on the same platform, including in terms of developmental priorities for the Global South, which looks to both Asian giants to play a leadership role.
"In recent years, the multilateral space for cooperation between India and China has shrunk and the BRICS and SCO can help retrieve some ground on key issues, including combating terrorism, climate change, green transitions, and reforms of global institutions," said Chinoy.
Edited by: Darko Janjevic